摘要
矿建材料是支撑经济社会发展和城镇化建设的重要资源,是长江三峡过闸运输的第一大货类。当前,我国进入适应经济新常态的实质阶段,长江经济带建设走上了“生态优先、绿色发展”的道路,影响矿建材料供需的外部环境已发生了重大变化。通过分析矿建材料三峡过闸运输的现状以及影响矿建材料供需的新形势,借鉴发达国家城镇化进程对矿建材料内河运量的影响规律,研究了新形势下矿建材料三峡过闸运输的发展趋势。研究表明:上游四省市城镇化进程将保障矿建材料过闸运量的增长空间,而长江大保护等相关政策会给矿建材料供给带来短期影响,但随着砂石行业完成转型发展,实现新旧动能转换,供给质量和能力将会得到有效补充和提升。因此,2035年以前,预计矿建材料过闸运量仍将逐步增长,2035~2050年才逐步回落,过闸运量稳定在2000万~3000万t的水平。研究成果将为三峡水运新通道工程的规模论证提供理论参考。
Mining construction material,as an important resource supporting the economic and social development and urbanization construction,ranks the first large quantity among shipment transported through Three Gorges Dam.With China enters the substantial stage of adapting to the new normal of economy,the Yangtze River economic zone construction has embarked on the road of“ecological priority and green development”,so the external environment affecting the supply and demand of mining construction materials has undergone major changes.The article analyzed the current situation of the mining materials transported through Three Gorges Dam and the supply and demand under new normal of economy,and also learned lessons from general rule of transport volume in waterway in developed countries urbanization,so as to study the traffic trend of mining construction materials transported through Three Gorges Dam.The study results showed that the upper four provinces(Sichuan,Chongqing,Yunnan,Guizhou)urbanization will guarantee the growth of shipment transported through Three Gorges Dam.Policies for the protection of Yangtze River have short-term impact on the mining construction materials supply.But with the transformation development of sand industry,realizing the old and new kinetic energy conversion,supply quality and ability will be effectively complement and ascend.Therefore,before the year of 2035,the shipment quantity of mining construction materials through Three Gorges Dam will gradually increase,and it will decline from 2035 to 2050 and will remain stable at the level of 20 million to 30 million tons.The study results will provide theoretical references for the scale argumentation of the new water transportation channel for the Three Gorges Dam.
作者
尹政兴
钱俊
厉泽逸
YIN Zhengxing;QIAN Jun;LI Zeyi(Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2019年第12期125-129,共5页
Yangtze River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目“重大水利枢纽增建和改建通航建筑物关键技术及示范”(2016YFC0402008)
关键词
矿建材料
过闸运量
内河航运
经济新常态
三峡水运新通道
mining construction materials
shipment quantity through shiplock
inland navigation
new normal of economy
new water transportation channel of TGP
