摘要
为提高民航运行安全水平,以2007-2016年民航不安全事件为数据源,选取事故和典型事故征候事件作为民航不安全事件风险评价指标,构建了基于灰色白化权聚类的民航不安全事件风险评价模型,采用最大离差化原理确定指标权重,以实际运行数据对这10年的民航不安全事件的风险进行了评价。结果表明:基于灰色聚类的风险评价结果与民航实际运行情况基本相符,验证了以事故和典型事故征候为指标的民航不安全事件风险评价体系的合理性,对提高民航安全生产能力有积极意义。
In order to enhance the operational safety of civil aviation, based on the data of civil aviation unsafe events on 20076-2016, the risk assessment index was constructed with typical accident and incident events, and the risk assessment model for civil aviation unsafe events based on grey whitening clustering was proposed in this paper. Then the weight of each index is determined by the principle of maximizing deviation. Finally, the safety risk in these 10 years was evaluated by actual operation data. According to the result, it is consistent with the actual operation of civil aviation, which verified the rationality of the safety risk assessment indexes taking into account of the typical accidents and incidents. And it has changed the traditional safety assessment index and methods of civil aviation based on people, machines, environment and administration, which has positive significance to improve the safety production capacity of civil aviation.
作者
万健
夏正洪
朱新平
Wan Jian;Xia Zhenghong;Zhu Xinping(China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology,Beijing 100028 China;Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307 Sichuan China)
出处
《中国民航飞行学院学报》
2020年第1期11-15,共5页
Journal of Civil Aviation Flight University of China
基金
国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民航局联合基金项目(U1733105)
关键词
风险评价
灰色聚类
不安全事件
Risk assessment
Grey clustering
Unsafe events
