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哈萨克斯坦通货膨胀目标制货币政策转型问题研究——基于能源输出国及新兴市场国家禀赋的实践经验

Research on the Transformation of Kazakhstan’s Inflation Target System: Based on the Practical Experience of the Endowment in Energy Exporting Countries and Emerging Market Countries
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摘要 在国际油价下跌和资本流出的双重冲击下,哈萨克斯坦央行货币政策框架由兼顾汇率稳定和物价稳定的双目标制向通货膨胀目标制转型。文章认为,哈萨克斯坦货币政策转型是应对外部经济环境恶化的被动选择,其根源在于新兴市场国家央行所面临的"能源价格牵引"和"资本账户主导"困境。新的货币政策框架设计结合哈萨克斯坦本国的特点,重点关注通货膨胀目标的实现,完善了汇率的市场定价机制,提升了政策执行的透明度,是对"不可能三角"经济规律的回归。政策执行以来,通货膨胀控制在央行设定的目标区间内,坚戈汇率趋于稳定,经济呈现复苏态势,其经验对新兴市场国家具有借鉴意义。 Under the double impact of the oil price fall and capital outflows, the monetary policy framework of the Kazakhstan Central Bank is shifting from double targeting for exchange rate stability and price stability to targeting for inflation. The article considers that Kazakhstan’s monetary policy transformation is a passive choice to cope with the deterioration of the external economic environment, which can be traced to the dilemma of "energy price traction" and "capital account dominance" faced by central banks in emerging markets. The new monetary policy framework designing combines the characteristics of Kazakhstan, focuses on the realization of inflation target, improves the market pricing mechanism of exchange rate, and enhances the transparency of policy implementation. It is a return to the economic law of "Impossible Trinity". After the implementation of the policy, inflation has been controlled within the target range of the central bank, the exchange rate of the Tenge has been stabilized, and the economy has recovered. The experience of Kazakhstan have certain reference value to other emerging market countries.
作者 刘遵乐 刘文翠 Liu Zunle;Liu Wencui(Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi;Urumqi Central Sub一branch of the People's Bank of China,Urumqi)
出处 《经济社会体制比较》 CSSCI 北大核心 2019年第6期124-135,共12页 Comparative Economic & Social Systems
基金 国家社会科学基金一般项目“中巴经济走廊建设中的直接投资风险预警与防范研究”(项目编号:19BGJ069) 新疆财经大学科研创新项目“前瞻性泰勒规则下俄罗斯货币政策的影响因素分析”(项目编号:XJUFE2019B006)
关键词 哈萨克斯坦 新兴市场国家 外部冲击 货币政策转型 通货膨胀目标制 Kazakhstan Emerging Country External Shock Transformation of Monetary Policy Inflation Targeting
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