摘要
在梳理人口老龄化与技术进步关系的基础上,利用36个OECD成员国1990-2017年的跨国面板数据,实证研究人口老龄化对技术进步的影响效应。结果表明:现阶段人口老龄化对技术进步的影响显著为正,其内在机制可能是家庭与企业对人口老龄化做出了最优回应,使得人口老龄化对技术进步的正向效应高于其负向效应;目前OECD国家的人口老龄化尚未阻碍其技术进步,采用替换变量、反向因果识别等多种方法进行稳健性检验,上述结论依然成立。这一结论有助于正确理解人口老龄化对技术进步的影响,进而可减轻人口老龄化对技术进步的负面效应。
On the basis of reviewing the relationship between population aging and technological progress, and using the cross-border panel data of 36 OECD member countries from 1990 to 2017, this paper empirically investigates the effect of population aging on technological progress. The empirical results show that: at present, the effect of population aging on technological progress is significantly positive, and its internal mechanism may be that families and enterprises have made the optimal response to population aging, which makes the positive effect of population aging on technological progress higher than its negative effect;at present, the population aging of OECD countries has not hindered technological progress, which is still valid by using alternative variables, reverse causal identification and other methods for robustness test. The findings are conducive to a correct understanding of the impact of population aging on technological progress, which can reduce the negative effects of population aging on technological progress.
作者
邓翔
张卫
万春林
DENG Xiang;ZHANG Wei;WAN Chun-lin(School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)
出处
《广东财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期11-23,共13页
Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71673194)
