摘要
物流产业升级是现阶段物联网和智慧物流研究的重点问题之一。本文以系统动力学为基础,基于创新能力、技术水平、共享能力、协同能力四个角度,构建“智慧+共享”背景下物流产业升级的系统动力学模型。研究发现,2013—2033年期间,我国物流业呈现为每6、3、5、6年的发展周期,行业生产总值的年均增长率为10.2%,总体呈现上升态势。物流企业应以提高基础设施指数为代表的技术水平为重点,其次增加以研发投入为代表的创新能力,最后是行业的协同能力;多情景分析研究发现,削减投入短期内不会导致行业生产总值迅速下降,因此物流企业可以根据每年的效益,使企业的年均投入保持在一定水平或者提高,将有利于促进行业绩效提高,实现产业升级。
Logistics industry upgrading is one of the key issues in the research of Internet of Things and Intelligent Logistics.Based on system dynamics,this paper builds a system dynamics model of logistics industry upgrading under the background of"wisdom+sharing"from four perspectives:innovation ability,technology level,sharing ability and collaboration ability.It is found that during the period of 20132033,China's logistics industry presents a development cycle of every 6,3,5 and 6 years,with an average annual growth rate of 10.2%of the industry's gross domestic product,showing an overall upward trend.Under a single scenario,logistics enterprises should focus on improving the technological level represented by infrastructure index,increase the innovation ability represented by R&D investment,and finally the synergistic ability of the industry.Multi-scenario analysis shows that reducing investment will not lead to a rapid decline in the industry's GDP in the short term.In order to keep the average annual investment of enterprises at a certain level or improve according to the annual benefits,it will be conducive to promoting the performance of the industry and achieving industrial upgrading.
作者
钱慧敏
杨代君
QIAN Huimin;YANG Daijun(School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China)
出处
《科学与管理》
2019年第6期25-33,共9页
Science and Management
基金
上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题（2017BGL027）
