摘要
对外资产的价值缩水和负投资收益形成中国向以美国为主的储备货币国家的财富净转移,引致中国的财富损失。在跨境贸易人民币结算失衡的前提下,人民币在国际贸易结算中的使用加大了我国的财富损失风险。本文从跨境贸易人民币结算失衡出发,实证分析跨境贸易人民币结算对我国国民财富造成的风险。研究表明,代表我国国民财富损益的对外资产负债综合回报率和代表我国国民财富转移的中美互相持有对方资产的综合回报率差异,与跨境贸易人民币结算、人民币实际汇率、中美两国长期利差、我国对外资产结构和对外负债结构等因素之间存在着长期的均衡关系。在目前我国跨境贸易人民币结算失衡的背景下,随着跨境贸易人民币结算的增加,我国国民财富不仅出现损失,而且存在财富的对外转移效应。同时,汇率、中美利差和我国对外资产—负债结构因素也通过估值效应影响我国财富损失。
The shrinking value of external assets and the negative investment income have become the net transfer of wealth from China to major reserve currency countries such as US and caused a loss of Chinese wealth.Under the premise of the imbalance of cross-border trade settlement in Renminbi,the use of Renminbi in international trade settlement further increases the risk of wealth loss in China.Based on the imbalance of cross-border trade settlement in Renminbi,this paper examines the risk of Renminbi settlement of cross-border trade on China’s national wealth through empirical analysis.The study found that the comprehensive rate of return of China’s external assets and liabilities representing China’s national wealth gains and losses and the comprehensive rate of return of Sino-US mutual holding each other’s asset representing China’s national wealth transfer have a long-term equilibrium relationship with cross-border trade Renminbi settlement,Renminbi real exchange rate,the China-US long-term interest rate difference,China’s external asset structure and external debt structure.Under the background of the imbalance of Renminbi settlement of cross-border trade in China,with the increase of Renminbi settlement of cross-border trade,the loss of China’s national wealth also has the external transfer effect of wealth.At the same time,the exchange rate,the Sino-US long-term interest spread and China’s external assets to debt structure factor also affects China’s wealth loss through the valuation effect.
作者
何平
邓宁
He Ping;Deng Ning
出处
《学术研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第11期72-82,177,178,共13页
Academic Research
基金
2015国家自然科学基金项目“人民币国际使用的最佳边界与金融风险管理”（71573268）的阶段性成果
