摘要
在文在寅执政期间,伴随着韩朝双方最高领导人在板门店的成功会晤,韩朝关系在经历了所谓“丢失的10年”的“冰河期”以后再次迎来“回暖”,半岛紧张局势趋于缓和。韩朝关系之所以能够迎来新的“蜜月期”,除了文在寅基于对朝友好态度的“绥靖”政策发挥着关键性的作用以外,也和朝鲜的对外政策发生根本变化息息相关。在韩朝最高领导人为缓和半岛局势进行高频率政治互动的同时,“朝鲜无核化”这一制约半岛和平进程的最根本问题的解决却依然波折跌宕。目前,文在寅政府朝核政策面临的困境是来自于美国的对朝不妥协和韩国国内保守势力对文在寅政府的制约。如果文在寅在任期内不能成功化解来自美国和国内的压力,那么其制定的无核化政策很可能以失败告终"另一方面,特朗普之所以不愿在对朝制裁问题上做出妥协,是因为其不希望朝核问题与自身的亚太战略脱钩。同时特朗普也希望通过朝核问题促使韩国在战略上和自己保持一致,达到更好“管控”韩国的目的。
With the 2018 summit at Panmunjom,inter—Korean relations during the Moon presidency have improved considerably,after going through the so-called“lost decade”of ice-cold relations.The reduction in tension and the new“honeymoon”between the two countries are largely attributable to Moon’s friendly“appeasement policy”towards North Korea,and inextricably related to the transformations in North Korean foreign policies.Despite the frequent political interactions between top leaders of the South and the North which have effectively defused tension,how to approach the DPRK’s denuclearization—the chief obstacle in the peace process—remains a thorny issue.Currently,the predicament facing the Moon government is largely caused by America’s uncompromising stance towards North Korea and the constraint of conservative forces in South Korea. If Moon can’t resist the pressures both from America and at home, his denuclearization policy might well end up in failure. On the other hand, Trump has no intention to ease sanctions against North Korea as he hopes to use the North Korean nuclear issue as part of his Asia—Pacific strategy. Meanwhile, Trump wants to push South Korea to stay in step with America on the nuclear issue so as to enhance U.S. influence over South Korea.
出处
《国际论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期125-139,159,160,共17页
International Forum
关键词
朝核政策
朝美关系
韩美同盟
对朝绥靖
policy on the North Korea nuclear issue
DPRK-U.S.relations
U.S.-ROK alliance
appeasement policy towards DPRK
