摘要
"一带一路"倡议对于推进人民币国际化具有重要意义。利用28个"一带一路"沿线国家2005-2017年的面板数据,实证检验货币替代率的影响因素。研究发现,货币替代率的决定因素在不同区域的国家呈现一定的差异性。对于东亚和南亚国家而言,通货膨胀率、本外币利差和实际有效汇率是影响货币替代率的显著因素;对外贸易依存度、广义货币供给量、实际有效汇率、本外币利差和国内生产总值都会对中亚和东欧国家货币替代率产生显著影响;对于西亚和非洲国家而言,本外币利差、实际有效汇率、广义货币供给量、对外贸易依存度、通货膨胀率和国内生产总值均会对货币替代率产生显著影响。依托金融科技创新,布局人民币离岸金融市场,开展人民币金融衍生品交易,加大对外直接投资人民币计价和跨境贸易人民币结算,发挥人民币锚货币作用,是促进"一带一路"区域人民币国际化的重要政策举措。
Based on the theory of marginal utility function of currency substitution,using the panel data of 2005-2017 countries in 28 countries along the"The Belt and Road"area,the least squares method is used to empirically study the main factors that affect the currency substitution rate in these countries.The results show that in East Asia and South Asia inflation rate rCPI,foreign currency spreads IRM and effective exchange rate REER have significant influence on the currency substitution rate;for the Central Asian and Eastern European countries,these factors are:foreign trade dependence DFT,money supply M2,real effective exchange rate REER,foreign currency spreads IRM and gross domestic product GDP;and those for the West Asian and African countries are:foreign currency spreads IRM,effective exchange rate REER,money supply M2,foreign trade dependence DFT,inflation rate rCPI and gross domestic product GDP.The policy implications of this conclusion are:We should rely on financial and technological innovation,intensify the layout of RMB offshore financial market,develop RMB derivatives trading,increase foreign direct investment RMB valuation and cross border trade RMB settlement,and play the role of RMB"anchor currency".Those are important policy measures to promote the internationalization of RMB in the"The Belt and Road"region.
作者
刘玲
LIU Ling(Guanghua School of Management,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;School of Economics,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134,China)
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第11期89-99,共11页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
基金
天津市哲学社会科学规划项目（TJYY19-014）
关键词
货币替代
“一带一路”
人民币国际化
通货膨胀率
currency substitution
"The Belt and Road"
RMB internationalization
inflation rate
