摘要
利用1959~2015年6个气象站点的连续监测数据,基于Vyshotskii模型、线性倾向分析、Hurst趋势预测等方法,研究了横断山区典型干旱河谷干湿状况演变特征及影响因素,发现干湿状况在年际与年内尺度上的变化均表现出明显的非同步性,除巴塘和西昌有暖干化趋势外,其余河谷均呈现出暖湿化趋势,年内春季与秋季的干湿变化规律性较明显;年际尺度上雷波未来演变为暖干化的概率较大,而其余河谷仍将维持历史时期的变化趋势,年内尺度上夏季、冬季的未来趋势倾向规律明显;随着海拔升高及纬度增加,干旱河谷暖干化程度越突出,而越偏东的河谷,暖湿化的演变趋势越突出;干湿状况与降水量、相对湿度和降水日数呈正相关,与平均气温、积温、日照时数及平均风速呈负相关,降水量的变化状况直接影响着干湿状况的波动及演变趋势,而特殊地形与人类活动间接影响干旱河谷区的干湿度演变。横断山区干旱河谷的干湿变化以暖湿化趋势为主,气候变化尤其是降水变化是该趋势的主控因素。
To reveal the evolution of dry-wet conditions in dry valley of Hengduan Mountains area and its influencing factors,monitoring data of 6 meteorological stations from 1959 to 2015 of typical dry valleys are analyzed by the Vyshotskii model,linear trend analysis and Hurst trend prediction.The change trend of dry-wet conditions shows non-synchronization in inter-annual time scale.Batang and Xichang have dry-warm trend,and the rest of the valleys appear wetwarm trend.The changing in spring and autumn are more obvious in annual scale.The probability of dry-warm trend to Leibo is remarkable on the annual time scale in the future,while the rest dry valleys will maintain the trend of historical changing.The tendency is obvious during the summer and winter.With the increase of elevation and latitude,the characteristics of dry-warm trend are more prominent,and the wet-warm trend are more obvious for those valleys in the east.The index of dry-wet conditions are positive correlated with the precipitation,relative humidity and precipitation days,while are negative correlated with the average temperature,accumulated temperature,sunshine duration and average wind speed.The conditions of precipitation changing affect the fluctuation and trend of the dry-wet conditions directly.However,the special topography and human activities affect the dry-wet conditions evolution indirectly.The dry-wet conditions change of the Hengduan Mountains is dominated by the climate change,especially the precipitation change.
作者
丁文荣
DING Wen-rong(College of Tourism and Geography Science,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2019年第11期6-10,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41101099)
关键词
干湿状况
演变特征
影响因素
横断山区
干旱河谷
dry-wet conditions
change characteristics
influencing factor
Hengduan Mountains Area
dry valleys
