摘要
多风电场相关性模型的准确程度将会直接影响到风电接入系统的评价结果,针对现有多维风电出力相关性模型精度偏低的缺点,提出先利用FCM聚类方式对数据进行场景划分,再结合Copula函数和D藤结构分场景对多维风电出力进行相关性分析的场景D藤Copula模型建模方法。为验证所述模型的有效性,以实际风电出力数据为样本对所述场景D藤Copula模型进行测试分析。算例结果表明本文所述模型可实现对原始数据相关性的精确描述,且相关性建模结果更为可靠。
It is of great significance to establish accurately correlation model of multiple wind power output for evaluating wind power system. Focusing on the shortcoming of low precision of current correlation model of multiple wind power,a new scenario D-vine copula method is proposed,which combines the fuzzy C-means clustering,copulas function and D vine structure. The model can more accurately analyze the correlations between multiple wind power output. For validating the fitting accuracy and effectiveness of scenario D vine copula method,the model is verified by the measured output of a three adjacent wind farms in Australia is regarded as samples. The numerical results show the superiority of the proposed method.
作者
邱宜彬
李诗涵
刘璐
王勇
李奇
陈维荣
Qiu Yibin;Li Shihan;Liu Lu;Wang Yong;Li Qi;Chen Weirong(School of Electrical Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China;Luzhou Power Supply Company,State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company,Luzhou 646000,China)
出处
《太阳能学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第10期2960-2966,共7页
Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金（61473238
51407146）
四川省杰出青年基金（2015JQ0016）
