摘要
第三方支付的发展推动了传统支付清算结构的深刻变革,电子货币对流通中现金的替代效应造成货币需求、信用创造过程以及货币政策有效性发生变化。本文立足我国第三方支付发展,以惠伦货币需求理论为基础,研究发现电子货币对现金的替代比例可达到66.67%以上,电子货币对现金的替代效应明显。在鲍莫尔-托宾模型的基础上,重新推导交易性货币需求,发现电子货币改变了货币需求结构,货币需求难以预测;货币创造过程中信用扩张带来的引致效应可以创造出更多流通货币,放大电子货币替代效应对货币供应量的影响。实证结果表明,利率对GDP增长率的变动影响时滞较长,电子货币加大了中介目标的不确定性,弱化了货币政策有效性。
The development of third-party payment promotes the profound reform of the traditional payment clearing structure.The substitution effect of electronic money on cash in circulation causes changes in the factors of money demand,credit creation process and monetary policy effectiveness.Based on the theory of Whelan money demand and the development of third-party payment in China,this paper finds that the substitution ratio of electronic money to cash can reach more than 66.67%,and the substitution effect of electronic money on cash is obvious.O n the basis of the Baumol-Tobin model,the transactional currency demand is re-derived,and it is found that electronic money changes the structure of money demand.The demand for money is difficult to predict.The induced effect of credit expansion in the process of currency creation can create more currency that is available to amplify the impact of the substitution effect of electronic money on the money supply.The empirical results show that the contribution rate of interest rate to CPI changes is significantly stronger than the money supply,but electronic money increases the uncertainty of intermediary targets and weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy.
作者
贾丽平
张晶
贺之瑶
Jia Liping;Zhang Jing;He Zhiyao
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第9期20-31,共12页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(16BJY178)
山西省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(2017331)资助
关键词
电子货币
替代效应
中介目标
货币政策有效性
Electronic Money
Substitution Effect
Intermediate Target
Monetary Policy Effectiveness
