摘要
在中国和海合会自贸区框架下,利用GTAP模型模拟并比较降低关税和技术性贸易壁垒所带来的经济效应,同时从宏观影响、贸易影响和产出变动三个层面进行相应的机制分析。结果显示:无论是关税还是技术性贸易壁垒的降低都会对中国和海合会GDP、福利水平、总进口量、总出口量、贸易条件、国内就业、消费和投资等宏观经济产生正向影响。但技术性贸易壁垒下降比关税下降对GDP的贡献更大,且随着技术性贸易壁垒降低幅度的增加,各项宏观指标将会有倍增式的增长。中国对海合会加工制品、石油化工产品和牲畜肉类产品出口量因技术性贸易壁垒降低带来的替代效应增幅明显;中国对海合会纺织和服装、轻工业、重工业、石化行业的出口需求拉动了中国相关部门的产出。
Technical barriers to trade(TBT)have always been the focus of The Free Trade Agreement(FTA)negotiations among countries.To clarify the economic effect of reducing TBT is critical in China's negotiation strategies,and it is of great significance to strengthen the trade cooperation relationship between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC).This paper simulates the economic effects of reducing tariff and TBT under the framework of the FTA negotiation between China and GCC by employing the Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)model,and analyzes the economic effects from three aspects:macroeconomic impact,trade impact and output change,as well as the corresponding mechanism changes.The results show that the reduction of tariffs or technical barriers to trade will have a positive impact on the GDP,welfare level,total imports,total exports,terms of trade,domestic employment,consumption and investment of China and GCC.However,the decline of technical barriers to trade contributes more to GDP than the decline of tariffs,and with the increase of the reduction of technical barriers to trade,the macro indicators will have a multiplier growth.China’s exports of processed products,petrochemical products and livestock and meat products to the GCC have increased significantly due to the substitution effect brought by the reduction of technical barriers to trade.Export demand for GCC textiles and clothing,light industry,heavy industry and petrochemical industries led to an increase in domestic output.
作者
杨韶艳
李娟
Yang Shao-yan;Li Juan
出处
《亚太经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期14-23,149,共11页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
基金
国家社会科学基金西部项目:《“一带一路”背景下推进中国与阿拉伯国家贸易投资便利化问题研究》(17XGJ009)
宁夏高校科研基金:“开放战略与区域经济人文社科重点研究基地”(NXYLXK2017B04)
宁夏大学科研基金:“理论经济学西部一流学科建设资金”(NXYLXK2017B04)
