摘要
基于江西省85个气象站1961~2017年的气象数据,采用气候倾向率、Manner-Kendall突变检验、Morlet连续小波分析、相关分析、ARCGIS空间插值等方法,分析了江西寒露风初日、寒露风日数、寒露风站次的时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:寒露风初日在西北部早,在南部迟,日数在西部多,在东部少,发生频率在北部和南部低,在中部高;在气候变化背景下,寒露风的初日呈推迟趋势,总日数、总站次、轻度站次和重度站次呈增加趋势,寒露风最严重年代出现在1981~1990年,最少年代是1961~1970年;寒露风初日突变在1999年,寒露风总日数、总站次、轻度站次和重度站次突变在1992年,而中度站次则无突变;9月平均气温与寒露风初日具有明显的正相关关系,而与寒露风总日数、总站次、轻度站次、中度站次和重度站次具有明显的负相关关系。
Based on 1961~2017 meteorological data of eighty-five meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province,adopting the methods of climate tendency rate,Manner-Kendall mutation testing,Morlet continuous wavelet analysis,correlation analysis and ArcGIS spatial interpolation,we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the first day,the number,the stations of antumn low temperature and its responses to climate change in this paper.The results indicated that the first day of antumn low temperature was early in the northwest and late in the south with more days in the west and less in the east,and the frequency was low in the north and south,but high in the middle.The first day of antumn low temperature was delayed,and the total number of days,total station times,mild and severe station times showed a trend of increase.The years when antumn low temperature was most serious were 1981~1990,and the least years were 1961~1970.The mutation point of first day of antumn low temperature was in 1999.The mutation point of the total days,station times,mildly station times and severely station times was in 1992,but there was no mutation in moderate station times.the average temperature in September had a significant positive correlation with the first day of antumn low temperature,and it had a significant negative correlation with the total days,totally station times,mildly station times,moderately station times and severely station times of autumn low temperature.
作者
刘丹
郭瑞鸽
杨军
蔡哲
LIU Dan;GUO Rui-ge;YANG Jun;CAI Zhe(Meteorological Research Institute of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330096,China;Jiangxi Agricultural Meteorological Center,Nanchang 330096,China)
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2019年第10期102-108,共7页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201840)
江西省气象科技项目(JMTF20170221)
江西省重点研发计划项目(20171ACF60018)
关键词
江西
寒露风
时空变化
小波分析
气候变化
响应
Jiangxi
Autumn low temperature
Spatial-temporal Variation
Wavelet analysis
Climate change
Response
