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基于时间序列的动态风险监测模型研究及应用

Research and application on dynamic risk monitoring model based on correlation time series analysis
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摘要 文章针对区域内重点企业风险监测评估问题,提出了一种基于相关时间序列的企业动态风险指数的监测评估模型,建立了企业风险监测评估指标体系。通过分类数据实时采集,利用Z-score对各类企业风险数据进行归化处理,生成基于时间序列的风险强度矩阵,并叠加相关时间序列的风险衰减函数,利用熵权法给风险指标赋权,最后计算风险指数,对区域重点企业风险进行监测评估。仿真结果表明该方法是一种解决区域企业风险监测评估的有效方法。 Aiming at the problem of risk monitoring and evaluation of key enterprises in the region,this paper puts forward a monitoring and evaluation model of enterprise dynamic risk index based on correlation time series,and establishes the index system of enterprise risk monitoring and evaluation.Through real-time collection of classified data,all kinds of enterprise risk data are naturalized by Z-score.The risk intensity matrix based on time series is generated,and the risk attenuation function of related time series is superimposed.Entropy weight method is used to empower the risk index,and finally the risk index is calculated to monitor and evaluate the risk of regional key enterprises.The simulation results show that this method is an effective method to solve the risk monitoring assessment of regional enterprises.
作者 徐楠楠 胡晨光 余育青 郝平 Xu Nannan;Hu Chenguang;Yu Yuqing;Hao Ping(Beijing Polytechnic,Beijing 100176,china;Zhijiang College of Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310024,China)
出处 《江苏科技信息》 2019年第26期56-59,共4页 Jiangsu Science and Technology Information
基金 北京电子科技职业学院校内重点课题 项目名称:基于流程和数据的智慧校园综合信息服务平台搭建研究 项目编号:2018Z002-021-KXZ 浙江省信息服务业发展专项计划项目 项目编号:2014-104
关键词 风险序列 Z-SCORE 指数衰减函数 熵权法 risk sequence Z-score exponential decay function entropy method
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