摘要
本文采用定量分析方法分析九江市的土地利用数量结构的特征并对其2020年用地数量结构进行预测,对比分析规划值与预测值之间的差异。研究结果表明:(1)九江市用地数量结构变化的显著特征是农用地、生态用地占比逐年减少,建设用地快速增加;(2)采用灰色系统动态模型对九江市的用地数量结构进行预测具有科学合理性。建议在国土空间规划编制中采用科学方法预测,以提高规划的科学性和指导性。
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the present characteristics of land use quantitative structure in Jiujiang city of Jiangxi province,to forecast the quantitative structure of land use in 2020,and to compare the difference between the planning number and the predicting number.The results show that:①The obvious characteristic of changes of land use quantitative structure in Jiujiang city is that the proportion of agricultural land and ecological land is reduced year after year,and the construction land is increasing rapidly.②It is scientific and reasonable to use the grey system dynamic model to predict the quantitative structure of land use in Jiujiang city.In order to enhance the planning scientific and directive,it is suggested to adopt scientific methods to forecast in national spatial planning.
作者
夏雨岚
蔡潇
叶晓龙
吕添贵
Xia Yulan;Cai Xiao;Ye Xiaolong;Lv Tiangui(College of Tourism and Geography,Jiujiang University,Jiujiang Jiangxi 332005;School of Tourism and Urban Management,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang Jiangxi 330013)
出处
《国土资源导刊》
2019年第3期87-91,共5页
Land & Resources Herald
基金
江西省高校人文社会科学基金项目(GL18242)
关键词
土地利用
数量结构特征
灰色系统动态预测模型
九江市
land use
quantitative structural characteristics
model of grey system dynamic prediction
Jiujiang city
