摘要
改革开放以来我国对外贸易规模增长迅速,与此同时我国产业结构也得以优化调整,本文基于我国1997年-2017年数据探究我国贸易开放度与产业结构关联性。结果表明,我国贸易开放度与第二产业产值占GDP比重之间为正向关系,说明改革开放以来我国进出口贸易的发展带动了我国工业发展水平提升;我国贸易开放度与第三产业产值占GDP比重之间也为正相关关系,说明随着我国对外开放的深化发展,我国第三产业比重逐渐提升。格兰杰因果关系检验表明,贸易开放度是第二产业占GDP比重提升的格兰杰原因;贸易开放度与第三产业发展之间互为格兰杰原因。
Since the reform and opening up,the scale of China's foreign trade has grown rapidly,and at the same time,China's industrial structure has also been optimized and adjusted.This paper explores the correlation between China's trade openness and industrial structure based on China's data from 1997 to 2017.The results show that there is a positive relationship between China's trade openness and the proportion of the output value of the secondary industry in GDP,which indicates that the development of China's import and export trade has promoted the improvement of China's industrial development level since the reform and opening up.There is also a positive correlation between China's trade openness and the proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry in GDP,indicating that with the deepening of China's opening-up,the proportion of the tertiary industry in China is gradually increasing.Granger causality test shows that trade openness is the Granger reason for the increase of the proportion of the secondary industry in GDP.Trade openness and the development of the tertiary industry are Granger causes to each other.
作者
赵丽
ZHAO Li(Liuan Vocational Technical College,Liuan Anhui 237000)
出处
《牡丹江大学学报》
2019年第8期17-22,共6页
Journal of Mudanjiang University
关键词
贸易开放度
产业结构
协整分析
格兰杰
trade openness
industrial structure
co-integration analysis
Granger
