摘要
低碳经济是实现城市可持续发展的必由之路。本文将低碳城市建设与全域旅游发展相结合,构建人口、经济、社会、资源和环境五大要素为基础的低碳城市系统,运用系统动力学方法动态反映城市运行方式和系统要素相互作用,并选取天津2007-2016年相关数据进行系统实证模拟和有效性检验,进而对天津低碳城市系统做仿真预测和决策模拟分析。结果表明,天津现阶段及未来十年仍具有较强的资源和环境依赖性,低碳城市建设任重道远,产业转型、绿色交通及技术进步均对低碳建设有效,但发展以旅游业为代表的现代服务业效果更加显著,以产业结构调整为契机进行低碳技术研发是低碳城市建设的长效机制。
Industrial upgrading under the concept of low carbon is an important way to promote urban development.The article links low-carbon cities with comprehensive tourism to construct framework of low-carbon urban systems respectively from population,economy,society,resources and environment.System dynamics method is used to dynamically reflects the interaction between the urban operation mode and system elements.And then,simulation and prediction analysis for Tianjin are done with relevant data from 2007-2030 based on system simulation and validity test.We also select key points for system decision to simulate the change of main indicators in different policy scenarios.The results show that Tianjin will be still highly dependent on resources and environment in the coming ten years.Industrial transformation and technological progress are both effective for low-carbon construction,but the development of modern service industry,especially tourism industry is more significant.Low-carbon technology R&D is a long-term mechanism for low-carbon city construction.
作者
肖岚
孟利宁
XIAO Lan;MENG Li-ning(School of International Business,Tianjin Foreign Studies University,Tianjin 300204,China;School of Statistics,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China)
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第8期87-99,共13页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
基金
天津市哲学社会科学规划资助项目(TJGL17-029)
国家软科学资助项目(2011GXQ4B008)
关键词
全域旅游
低碳城市系统
系统动力学
流率基本入树
comprehensive tourism
low-carbon city system
system dynamic
rate variable fundamental in-tree
