摘要
【目的】对我国粮食主产区农业碳排放量进行测度,明晰农业碳排放影响因素,为实现农业经济与生态环境的协调发展提供理论依据。【方法】基于2004—2016年我国粮食主产区省际数据,在对粮食主产区农业碳排放量测度的基础上,引入空间自相关分析法和空间面板计量模型,考察粮食主产区农业碳排放的影响因素及其空间溢出性。【结果】我国粮食主产区农业碳排放量具有明显的空间相关特征,即粮食主产区各地区农业碳排放量不仅受到来自本地区农业碳排放的直接影响,还会受到其他地区农业碳排放的影响。考虑粮食主产区农业碳排放的影响因素,粮食生产技术效率、城镇化水平和农业产业集聚水平均对农业碳排放量有显著的抑制作用(P<0.01,下同),农业发展水平和农业开放度对农业碳排放量有显著的正向促进作用,而产业结构对农业碳排放的影响不显著(P>0.1)。【建议】为更好地促进我国粮食主产区农业碳减排,政府应强化农技推广和投入,依靠农业技术进步实现碳减排;制定合理政策适度推动城镇化发展,发挥城镇化对农业碳减排的正向作用;鼓励农业资源调整和重组,推动农业产业集聚;加强地区间合作交流,推进低碳农业平衡发展。
【Objective】Measuring the agricultural carbon emissions in main grain producing areas in China,clarifying the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions to provide a theoretical basis for the coordinated development of agricultural economy and ecological environment.【Method】Based on the interprovincial data of the main grain producing regions from 2004 to 2016,this paper measured agricultural carbon emission by introducing the spatial auto correlation analysis method and spatial panel measurement model to explore the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions and its spatial spillovers.【Result】The results showed that an obvious spatial correlation could be found in the agricultural carbon emission in main grain producing areas of China.The agricultural carbon emissions in all major grain producing areas were not only directly affected by agricultural carbon emissions from local,but also affected by other regional agricultural carbon emissions.Considering the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission in the main grain producing areas,grain production efficiency,urbanization level and agricultural industrial agglomeration level all significantly inhibited agricultural carbon emissions(P<0.01,the same below).Agricultural development level and agricultural openness had significant positive effect on agricultural carbon emissions,while industrial structure had no significant impact on agricultural carbon emissions(P>0.1).【Suggestion】In order to promote agricultural carbon emission reduction in the main grain producing areas,the government should strengthen agricultural technology promotion and investment,realize carbon emission reduction by agricultural technology development;formulate reasonable policies to promote urbanization development,play the positive role of cities and counties in carbon emission reduction;encourage agricultural resources adjustment and restructuring to promote agricultural industrial agglomeration;and build platforms to strengthen inter-regional co
作者
王珧
张永强
田媛
王荣
WANG Yao;ZHANG Yong-qiang;TIAN Yuan;WANG Rong(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)
出处
《南方农业学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第7期1632-1639,共8页
Journal of Southern Agriculture
基金
国家软科学基金项目（2014GXS2D017）
黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划项目（18JYH757)
关键词
粮食主产区
农业碳排放
空间自相关
空间溢出性
影响因素
major grain producing regions
agricultural carbon emissions
spatial autocorrelation
spatial spillover
influencing factors
