摘要
随着最严格水资源管理体系制度的建立,万元工业增加值用水量作为重要考核指标之一深受关注。通过多项式、对数、幂函数、指数、Logistic函数等多种函数模型及递减率模型和弹性系数模型,分析江西省万元工业增加值用水量历年变化趋势,表明在经济发展上升期,Logistic函数或指数函数的趋势拟合效果优于具有较强物理意义的递减率和弹性系数模型;通过RMSE、AIC和BIC三大信息准则选取最优模型,预测了2020、2030年江西省各地市该指标对数值分别控制在3.452~4.888、2.746~4.442,"十三五"末期的指标预测达标率为81.8%,与红线控制指标存在一定差异,表明地方须加强水量控制性管理;通过影响因子主成分分析,得出火电用水、工业用水和工业增加值等方面因素与万元工业增加值用水量具有较强正负相关性,影响效力显著,并指出江西省各地市应仍以调整产业结构,增加单位用水产出值降低万元工业增加值用水量为主要发展方向。
With the establishment and assessment of the strictest water resources management system,the water consumption per 10,000 yuan industrial added value as one of the important assessment indicators has been paid more and more attention.This paper analyzes the variation tendency of water consumption per 10,000 yuan industrial added value in Jiangxi Province for years by means of polynomial,logarithmic,power,exponential and logistic functions,decline rate model and elastic coefficient model,which shows that the trend fitting effect of the logistic or exponential function is better than that of the decline rate and elastic coefficient models with strong physical meaning in the rising period of economic development;predicts that the logarithmic values of the above indicators of all cities in 2020 and 2030 are controlled at 3.452 ~ 4.888 and 2.746 ~ 4.442 respectively,the predicted rate of the indicator achievement at the end of the 13th Five-year Plan is 81.8%,and there is a certain difference with the red line control indicator through the optimal model selected based on RMSE,AIC and BIC,which indicates that the control management of the water should be more strengthened;concludes that the factors such as thermal power water use,industrial water use and industrial added value have a strong positive or negative correlation with the water consumption per 10,000 yuan industrial added value through the principal component analysis of impact factors;and points out that Jiangxi Province should still make great efforts to adjust the industrial structure and increase the output value per unit water consumption to reduce the water consumption per 10,000 yuan industrial added value.
作者
曾智
刘春成
王开拓
付艳杰
ZENG Zhi;LIU Chuncheng;WANG Kaituo;FU Yanjie(Jiangxi Water Planning and Designing Institute,Nanchang 330029,China;Farmland Irrigation Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences,Xinxiang 453002,China;Qinghai Nationalities University,Xining 810007,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2019年第10期122-128,共7页
Pearl River
基金
江西省水利厅重大课题(2018GKF-0368)
关键词
最严格水资源管理
用水效率
万元工业增加值用水量
信息准则
指标可达率
主成分分析
strictest water resources management
water use efficiency
water consumption per 10,000 yuan industrial added value
information criterion
indicator achievement rate
principal component analysis