摘要
面对持续下滑的经济,为给企业减负,中国已于2019年5月1日将企业养老保险缴费率降至16%。降低企业养老保险缴费率是否以及多大程度上会影响未来中国实际潜在经济增长率呢?文章通过构建一个动态一般均衡模型,根据现实可行参数进行模拟后发现,虽然降低企业养老保险缴费率至16%无法改变未来中国经济增速下降的趋势,但是的确可以提升未来中国实际潜在经济增长率,尤其在短期较为有效。考虑到OECD国家经验后进一步模拟发现,上述结论依然稳健且提升效果更好。在实现两个百年目标期间,通过降低企业养老保险缴费率至16%将使2019-2021年、2022-2050年以及2019-2050年间的平均实际潜在经济增长率分别提升0.912%、0.132%以及0.211%;但是降低企业养老保险缴费率不是越低越好,而是存在一个最优缴费率16.454%。如果在降低企业缴费率的同时,增加个人账户养老保险缴费率,即从偏现收现付制的养老保险制度转向偏基金制的养老保险制度,不仅可减轻降低企业养老保险缴费率对劳动人口未来养老福利的负面影响,还可以促进经济增长,最终实现政策的帕累托改进。
Facing the downward trend of economic growth year by year,in order to promote the sustained and stable development of China’s economy,and smoothly achieve two hundred-year goals,reducing the tax burden of enterprises,especially reducing the contribution rate of enterprise endowment insurance,has become an important policy grasp. On May 1,2019,China reduced the contribution rate of enterprise endowment insurance to 16%. Under this background,will reducing the contribution rate of enterprise endowment insurance to 16%promote the real potential economic growth rate in the future,and to what extent can reducing the contribution rate of enterprise endowment insurance promote economic growth? Is it true that the lower the contribution rate of enterprise endowment insurance,the better the China’s future economic performance? These become the urgent question to be answered.In response to the above key scientific questions,by constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model and simulating with realistic and feasible parameters,it is found that although reducing the contribution rate of enterprise endowment insurance to 16% cannot change the downward trend of economic growth,it indeed increase China’s potential economic growth rate,especially in the short term. Taking into account the experience of OECD countries,further simulation shows that the above conclusions are still robust. Reducing the contribution rate of enterprise endowment insurance to 16% will increase the average economic growth rate by0.912%,0.132% and 0.211% between 2019-2021,2022-2050 and 2019-2050,respectively.Meanwhile,it is not true that the lower the contribution rate of enterprise endowment insurance,the better the China’s future economic performance. There is an optimal contribution rate of16.454%. If we reduce the contribution rate of enterprise endowment insurance,meanwhile increase the contribution rate of individual account endowment insurance,that is,from the pay-as-you-go system to the funding pension insurance system,we can not only r
作者
杨华磊
章安琦
张文超
Yang Hualei;Zhang Anqi;Zhang Wenchao(School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Hubei Wuhan 430073,China;School of Management,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期97-109,125,共14页
Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金“60后婴儿潮退出劳动市场对经济增长的冲击效应模拟与应对策略研究”（19YJC790167）
中央高校基本科研业务经费“新时代养老服务体系建设研究”（31510000072）和“延迟退休的微观效应与配套政策研究”（2722019JCG063）
关键词
企业养老保险缴费率
潜在经济增长率
动态一般均衡模型
the contribution rate of enterprise endowment insurance
economic growth rate
dynamic general equilibrium model
