摘要
本文对研发资本存量进行了处理,重新估计了中国 1990-2017年全国及省级层面的科技进步贡献率。结果显示:1990-2017年,科技进步对全国经济增长年均贡献率达 48 97%,成为中国经济增长最重要的动力源泉;2008年全球金融危机后,R&D资本深化对中国经济增长的贡献持续攀升,但全要素生产率过快下滑成为科技进步贡献和经济增长下行的主要原因;2013年以来,上海、浙江、江苏等多数东部地区全要素生产率已经开始触底反弹,但辽宁、新疆、山西等重化工和资源密集地区仍在严重下滑,甚至部分省份为负值。因此,加快扭转重化工和资源密集地区全要素生产率下滑的局势,是提高中国科技进步贡献率且抑制经济增长下行的关键。
This paper treats R&D investment as capital rather than intermediate inputs, redefining the concept of the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress and undertaking its estimation. Using data at the national and provincial levels from between 1990 and 2017. it is found that:(1) while economic growth in China mainly comes fmm capital investment and scientific and technological progress. the annual contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to national economic growth has reached 48. 97%, making it one of the most important sources of power for China's economic growth;(2) since the global financial crisis of 2008. the contribution rate of R&D capital deepening to China's economic growth has increased considerably, but the rapid decline in the total factor productivity (TFP) is the prime reason for the lower contribution rate of scientific and technological progress and the economic recession of recent years;and ( 3) since 2013, TFP in most of the eastern provinces, such as Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, has bottomed out and then started to pick up again, however, other areas, such as Liaoning. Xinjiang and Shanxi. which have heavy chemical and resource-intensive industries, have experienced a severe decline, with some even reaching negative values, llierefore, accelerating the reversal of the TFP decline in heavy chemical and resource-intensive industrial areas is crucial to improving the contribution rate of China's scientific and technological progress and thus curbing economic growth decline.
作者
郑世林
张美晨
Zheng Shilin;Zhang Meichen
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第10期73-97,共25页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573272)
国家社科重大项目(2015YZD03)
全国统计科学研究计划重大项目(2013571)的资助
关键词
技术进步
全要素生产率
R&D资本化
经济转型
technological progress
TFP
R&D capitalization
economic structure transformation
