摘要
针对付费类交通PPP项目,在通行需求服从跳跃扩散过程且调整成本不可忽略的实际背景下,研究价格和补偿的动态调整方法及其调整条件的预先设置问题.首先利用NPV确定特许期、价格等并分析交通通行需求的波动;然后提出动态调整方法,即在特定的时间周期内交通需求量持续突破上限或下限时,价格和补贴水平随之及时联动调整,使收益恢复到预期水平;以实际收益偏离预期最小为目标,建立调整条件决策模型,通过蒙特卡洛模拟并与遗传算法结合,寻找最优的调整条件,从而给出动态调整机制.最后通过一个实例验证了该方法的可行性和适用性,其结果显示,运营期中调整价格和补贴是保证私人部门合理收益的有效途径.
This paper pays attention to toll traffic PPP projects,researches on the dynamic adjustment method for price and subsidy,and how to preset its adjustment conditions,for which the traffic demand follows a jump-diffusion process and adjustment costs cannot be ignored.Firstly,it calculates the concession period,toll with NPV and analyze fluctuations of traffic demand;Secondly,the adjustment method is proposed:When adjusting conditions,that traffic has breached the upper or lower limits for a certain time,are met;the toll and subsidies should be adjusted immediately to make the revenue back to expected level.Then establish model of adjusting conditions aiming for the least deviation between actual revenue and expected revenue,solve the model by Monte-Cario Simulation and Genetic Algorithm for the optimal adjusting condition,and then the whole adjustment mechanism is given.Finally,a case is applied to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of this method in assuring reasonable profit of private sector.
作者
山珊
刘颖琦
叶顺心
SHAN Shan;LIU Yingqi;YE Shunxin(School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044;Xidian University, Xi'an 710126;School of Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632)
出处
《系统科学与数学》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第6期944-953,共10页
Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences
关键词
付费类交通PPP项目
价格动态调整
政府补贴
蒙特卡洛模拟
遗传算法
Transportation economy
toll traffic infrastructure PPP
dynamic adjustment
government subsidy
Monte-Cario Simulation
genetic algorithm
