摘要
以大连经济技术开发区为例,通过土地利用转移矩阵定量化分析了2000-2014年研究区的土地利用变化情况,结合CA-Markov模型对研究区2021年的土地利用格局进行了模拟。结果表明:①14年间大连市建设用地面积急剧增加,由西向东不断扩张,其面积由2000年的9031,50hm^2增加到2014年的17484.39m^2,最终占比为43.83%,耕地和水域面积持续减少,主要转为建设用地,草地面积先减少后增加,林地面积先增加后减少。②模拟期内,大连市建设用地面积仍将持续增长,2021年将占到研究区总面积的47.37%,而水域面积将减少为0.94%,草地、耕地、林地也呈现减少趋势,有关部门应注意合理利用土地,促进区域生态环境质量友好发展。
Taking Dalian Economic and Technological Development Zone as an example, it made a quantitative analysis on the land use change in the study area from 2000 to 2014 through the land use change matrix. The CA-Markov model was adopted to simulate the land use pattern in 2021 .The results indicated:RThe construction area, expanding from west to east, was increasing dramatically from 9031.50hm^2 of the year 2000 to 17484.39hm^2 of the year 2014, which accounted for 43.83 %. The farmland and water area were decreasing constantly, as they were primarily turning into the construction area. The grass area was decreasing first and then increasing, while the change trend of forest area was opposite. R During the simulation period, the construction area would be keeping sustainable growth, the portion of which in 2021 would be 43.83 % of the study area. The water area would be decreasing to 0.94 % as the grass, farmland, and forest areas were also appearing a downward trend. The relevant departments should pay attention to the rational use of land and promote the friendly development of regional ecological environment quality.
作者
王丽蓉
王利
刘万波
杜鹏
WANG Li-rong;WANG Li;LIU Wan-bo;DU Peng(Liaoning Normal University,Institute of Geography,Dalian 116029;Center for Marine economy and Sustainable Development,Liaoning normal University,Dalian,Liaoning 116029)
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
2019年第11期1347-1350,共4页
Resource Development & Market
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(编号:41701123)
辽宁省教育厅项目(编号:L201683680)
辽宁师范大学青年基金项目(编号:LS2015L014)
