摘要
以农业大省、粮食大省河南省为研究对象,探讨最适家庭农场经营规模及影响因素,为推进我国家庭农场规模化发展提供借鉴。采用问卷调查、电话采访和实地调查等形式进行了数据采集和对比分析,基于逐步回归分析方法对影响家庭农场收益的经营面积、粮食单均产量等9个因素建立了单位面积收益回归糢型,探索了家庭农场单位面积收益与影响因素之间的关系。分析了信息化技术对家庭农场经营规模的影响,并提出了三种面向家庭农场的信息化应用模式。研究结果表明,现阶段河南省家庭农场适度规模在12.1~13.34hm^2之间。经过比较,基于逐步回归分析的家庭农场单位面积收益和各个影响因素方程基本一致,通过对实际值和预测值的拟合,最大回归残差仅为2.67%,二者的拟合度很高。
The optimal management scale of family farms and its influencing factors are discussed in this paper in order to provide reference for promoting the development of family farms in China. And Henan Province is taken as the research object that it is a major agricultural and food province. The data that come from questionnaires, telephone interviews and field surveys are collected and analyzed systematically, which are the main factors affecting the income of family farms. Based on the stepwise regression analysis method, the regression model of family farms is constructed considering nine factors including the management area of family farm, the average yield of grain etc. And the influence of information technology on the scale of family farm operation was analyzed, and three information application models for family farms were proposed. The research study indicates the moderate scale of family farms in Henan Province is between 12.1?13.34 hm^2 from the perspective of scale efficiency and unit area income by using the method. By comparison, the unit area income of family farms based on stepwise regression analysis is basically consistent with the equations of various influencing factors. We can get the conclusion that the maximum regression residual is only 2.67% by fitting the actual value and the predicted value, and the fitted values are very high.
作者
司海平
牛兴奎
李武林
李艳玲
孙昌霞
SI Haiping;NIU Xingkui;LI Wulin;LI Yanling;SUN Changxia(College of Information and Management Science,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou Henan 450002,China;Chinese Academy of Press and Publication,Beying 100073,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2019年第10期119-123,共5页
Ecological Economy
基金
河南省现代农业产业技术体系“小麦产业技术创新团队耕作栽培岗位专家经费”(S2010-01-G04)
河南省科技惠民计划项目“基于综合信息服务的农业大数据平台推广及应用”(152207110002)
关键词
逐步回归
家庭农场
影响因素
经营规模
stepwise regression
family farm
influencing factors
management scale
