摘要
为研究气象要素对成人哮喘住院人数的影响,利用2013年1月1日至2016年12月31日石家庄市成人哮喘医保住院资料及气象、环境观测站数据,采用广义相加模型(GAM),在控制了时间趋势、节假日效应、空气污染等混杂因素后,分析气象要素与成人哮喘住院人数的暴露—反应关系。结果表明:各气象要素对成人哮喘住院人数的影响差异明显,日均气温(T)、日最高气温(Tmax)、日最低气温(Tmin)每上升1℃,成人哮喘住院风险分别减少0.7%、0.6%、0.7%;日均气压(P)每上升1hPa,成人哮喘住院风险增加0.6%;日均风速(Ws)每增大1m·s^-1,成人哮喘住院风险减少5.2%;当相对湿度RH<24%时,相对湿度每增加1%,成人哮喘住院风险减少3.4%;当RH≥92%时,相对湿度每增加1%,成人哮喘住院风险增加12.5%;气温、气压、风速对成人哮喘住院人数的的影响均在当天或滞后1天(lag0—1)效应最大;根据各气象要素影响特点,可为健康气象预报服务及公众防御提供依据。
To investigate the impact of meteorological elements on adult asthma hospitalization,based on the adult asthma hospitalization records of Shijiazhuang Medical Insurance Center from January 1,2013 to December 31,2016,and the meteorological and environmental observations during the same periods,the generalized additive model(GAM)was used to analyze the exposure-response relationship between the meteorological elements and the number of adult asthma hospitalization after controlling the factors such as long-term trend,holiday effects,and air pollution.The results show that different elements have different impacts on the number of adult asthma hospitalization.With 1℃increasing in daily mean air temperature(T),daily maximum temperature(T max),and daily minimum temperature(T min),the risk of adult asthma hospitalization decreased by 0.7%,0.6%,and 0.7%,respectively.The risk of adult asthma hospitalization increased by 0.6%with the increase of daily mean air pressure(P)by 1 hPa.The risk of adult asthma hospitalization decreased by 5.2%with 1 m·s^-1 increasing in daily mean wind speed(W s).When relative humidity(RH)was less than 24%,the risk of adult asthma hospitalization reduced by 3.4%with RH increasing 1%.The risk of adult asthma hospitalization increased by 12.5%with RH increasing 1%when RH was greater than or equal to 92%.The effect of T,P,and W s on the number of adult asthma hospitalization was strongest on the same day or on the followed day.Impacting characteristics of meteorological elements can provide a basis for healthy weather forecasting services and public defenses.
作者
刘华悦
付桂琴
王洁
LIU Hua-yue;FU Gui-qin;WANG Jie(Hebei Provincical Meteorology Service Center,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Key Laboratory for Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2019年第5期137-143,共7页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
上海市气象与健康重点实验室开放基金项目(QXJK201606)
河北省气象局面上基金项目(18KY17)共同资助
关键词
哮喘
广义相加模型
气象要素
相对风险
Asthma
Generalized additive model
Meteorological factors
Relative risk
