摘要
基于欧盟物质流分析框架对2003—2015年黑龙江省物质代谢进行核算分析,选取直接物质投入(DMI)和生产过程排放(DPO)两项指标判断环境影响与经济发展的关系,并利用对数平均迪式分解法探究各因素对物质减量化效应的贡献度。结果表明:(1)2011年之后黑龙江省物质需求总量(TMR)和物质输出总量(TMO)出现下降,但两者仍较期初有较明显增长。生物质和化石燃料是DMI的主要组成部分,而DPO主要由固体废弃物构成。(2)DMI正处于环境影响总量下降阶段,但并不稳定,而DPO则处于由排放强度高峰向人均排放高峰过渡阶段。(3)经济规模效应推动了DMI和DPO增长,人口效应对DMI和DPO增长的作用表现为先正向拉动后负向拉动,技术进步效应的提升抑制了DMI和DPO增长,而清洁生产效应并未很好地抑制DPO增长。
Based on MFA framework, Heilongjiang Province was chosen as the study area to analyze the changing trend of material input and output from 2003 to 2015. Direct material input(DMI) and domestic processed output(DPO) were selected to explore the interactions between environments and economic development and logarithmic mean weight divisia index(LMDI) was used to measure the influences of related factors. The results are as follows. First, during the study period, total material requirement (TMR) and Total Material Output (TMO) declined gradually after 2011, but their total amount was still higher than the initial period. DMI mainly consists of biological material and fossil fuels, and solid waste is the main part of DPO. Second, DMI and DPO were at different evolutionary stage. The influence of DMI was declining in relation to the environmental total impacts, but the relationship was not stable. And DPO was in the stage from the peak of output per unit of GDP to the peak of output per capita. Third, economic scale effect contributed greatly to the growth of DMI and DPO. Population size had a positive impact on the growth of DMI and DPO at the beginning but turned to negative impact later on. While technology progress made great contribution to the DMI and DPO reduction, cleaner production effect did not function properly to restrain the growth of DPO.
作者
任嘉敏
马延吉
郭付友
REN Jia-min;MA Yan-ji;GUO Fu-you(Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;College of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, China)
出处
《生态与农村环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第9期1144-1153,共10页
Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment
基金
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA19040500)
国家自然科学基金青年基金(41801105)
