摘要
基于2017年全国1365个监测站点的实时监测数据,运用空间数据统计模型揭示近地面臭氧(O3)污染的时空分布格局,并利用BenMap工具在10km×10km空间网格尺度上估计O3污染的健康损失和健康经济价值.结果表明,O3浓度具有较强的季节性变化,呈倒“V”型变化趋势,在空间分布上呈现明显的集聚性,即高值或低值区域集中分布,具有较强的空间正相关性;通过O3暴露系数模拟人群室内、室外O3暴露情况,在统计意义上估计得到2017年O3污染共计造成我国全因早逝人数98473例(95%置信区间:53419~143292),其中心血管疾病早逝风险约占45%,以不同学者估算得到的单位统计生命价值为基础,估计得到的健康经济损失在197~978亿元之间,约占2017年全国GDP的0.05%~0.26%.
Based on the real-time monitoring data of 1365monitoring stations in China in 2017,the spatial data statistical model was used to reveal the spatial-temporal distribution of near-ground ozone pollution,and BenMap tool was used to estimate the health loss and health economic value of ozone pollution on the scale of 10km×10km grid.The concentration of O3 had a strong seasonal variation,showing an inverted"V"trend,and the spatial distribution showed obvious agglomeration,that was high or low value areas were concentrated,which had a strong positive spatial correlation.In statistical sense,by simulating indoor and outdoor O3 exposure by O3 exposure coefficient,O3 pollution caused 98473 cases of all-cause premature death in China in 2017(95%CI:53419~143292),including premature death of cardiovascular diseases,which accounted for 45%.Based on the value of a statistical life estimated by different scholars,the estimated health economic loss ranged from 19.7 to 97.8 billion yuan,accounting for 0.05%to 0.26%of China's GDP in 2017.
作者
曾贤刚
阮芳芳
姜艺婧
ZENG Xian-gang;RUAN Fang-fang;JIANG Yi-jing(School of Environment & Natural Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第9期4025-4032,共8页
China Environmental Science
基金
科技部国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0702701)
关键词
O3
健康效应
BenMap
空间自相关
时空变化
ozone
health effect
BenMap
spatial autocorrelation
spatial-temporal variations