摘要
由于中国资本项目还未完全开放,人民币汇率制度改革还在进行,国内金融市场发育还不完全成熟,金融监管改革还有待改进等,在人民币国际化进程中潜伏着一系列来自国内外的金融风险挑战。本文通过识别人民币国际化进程中的金融风险来源,构建金融风险预警指标体系合成金融压力指数(风险程度指数),利用马尔科夫区制转移模型对人民币国际化进程中的金融风险演化趋势进行预警研究。结果表明,近年来随着人民币国际化进程的推进,金融风险水平较高,预警显示2018年7月—2020年6月金融压力指数处于高风险区域,预示随着人民币国际化进程加快中国所面临的金融风险水平将会上升。为此,建议重点关注货币政策操作、人民币汇率过度波动、国际资本流动以及资产价格波动等风险来源,防范多种风险来源叠加诱发系统性金融风险,同时应把握好人民币国际化节奏,防范进程过快导致风险加大。
By analyzing the challenges in the course of RMB internationalization,aiming at stabilizing the internationalization of RMB,this paper identifies the sources of financial risks,constructs an early warning index system of financial risks in the process of RMB internationalization,synthesizes a financial pressure index (risk degree index),and uses Markov regional transfer model to warn the financial risk status in the process of RMB internationalization.Results show that the financial pressure index will be in a high-risk state from July 2018 to June 2020,which indicates that with the acceleration of RMB internationalization process,China is facing a gradual increase in financial risks.Therefore,we suggest that more attention should be paid to the operation of monetary policy and the excessive exchange rate of RMB.Risks such as degree fluctuation,international capital flow and asset price fluctuation should be avoided to induce systemic financial risks by overlapping multiple sources of risk.Besides,we should grasp the rhythm of RMB internationalization and guard against excessive pace which will lead to greater risks.
作者
沈悦
王宝龙
李巍军
SHEN Yue;WANG BaoLong;LI Weijun(School of Economics and Finance,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710061,China)
出处
《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期39-48,共10页
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助(重大)项目(16JHQ006)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71373201)
陕西省社会科学基金(重点)项目(2017D001)
陕西省自然科学基金(重点)项目(2018JZ7001)
关键词
人民币国际化
金融风险
金融压力指数
风险识别
风险预警
RMB internationalization
financial risks
finance pressure index
risk identification
risk early warning
