摘要
自2008年全球金融危机之后,全球生产网络重组对中国区域经济的影响日益浮现。上海计算机制造业持续向重庆等地转移,重构了该行业全球生产网络的基本格局。利用上海市投入-产出表以及中国工业企业数据库、企业年报等,采用结构分解等方法分析上海计算机制造业产业变化,结合制造业多样性指数等指标,评估产业转移对区域经济的影响。研究发现:①上海计算机产业被锁定在全球价值链低端的组装制造环节,2007-2012年,增加值率(增加值与总产出的比值)从7.38%下降为4.29%;劳动者报酬占增加值比例从22.06%上涨为67.97%,推动产业对外迁移。②受上海市产业转移和国际市场低迷等因素影响,2007-2012年,上海计算机制造业总产出减少了483.9亿元。③制造业多样性指数较高的浦东新区受到计算机产业转移的影响较小,制造业多样性指数相对较低且计算机制造业占制造业总产值比例较高的闵行区、松江区在一定时期内仍然面临着计算机产业转移的负面影响。为了降低全球生产网络"去耦合"的冲击,提高区域经济的韧性,上海需要从全球生产网络的成熟产品生产平台转型为新产品研发创新枢纽,提高劳动生产率和产业增加值率,推动产业结构多样化。
The impacts of "decoupling" global production networks on China’s regional economies have become more pronounced since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Shanghai’s computer manufacturing industries are being relocated, especially to Chongqing, an inland Chinese city. Drawing upon Shanghai’s Input-Output tables and industrial databases, this study employs structural decomposition method and industrial diversity index to characterize structural changes in Shanghai’s computer manufacturing industries and assess the corresponding regional economic impacts. More specifically, this study finds that:(1) As Shanghai’s computer manufacturing industries have been ’locked’ in the assembly process within the global value chain, the decreasing value added rates and increasing labor costs are driving firms away from Shanghai.(2) The total economic outputs of Shanghai’s computer manufacturing industries decreased by 48.39 billion Yuan during 2007-2012, mainly due to shrinking domestic market and technological changes.(3) The relocation of computer manufacturing industries has limited impacts on the Pudong New Area, which has a more diverse industrial base. By contract, Minhang district and Songjiang district, with less diverse industries, are hit hard by the relocation of computer manufacturers. In order to accommodate the impacts of "decoupling" global production networks and improve regional economic resilience, Shanghai needs to become a research and development hub within global production networks, have higher labor productivity and value-added rates, as well as host a diversified industrial structure.
作者
李仙德
张旭亮
李卫江
温家洪
LI Xiande;ZHANG Xuliang;LI Weijiang;WEN Jiahong(School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China;Institute of Geography and Sustainability, University of Lausanne, Lausanne 1015, Switzerland;Academy of Global Zheshang Entrepreneurship, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China;School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China)
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第8期1919-1931,共13页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41771540,41730642,41571110,41301168)
国家社会科学基金项目(17BJL077)
上海师范大学理工科科研发展基金项目
关键词
计算机制造业
产业转移
结构分解分析
制造业多样性指数
上海
computer manufacturing industry
industrial relocation
structural decomposition analysis
industrial diversity index
Shanghai
