摘要
基于原国家卫生和计划生育委员会开展的2016流出地、2016流入地和2017流入地三项调查数据,采用双来源数据耦合比较方法,从农村和城市双向视角对当前农村家庭与城镇化的联系程度、流向以及就近城市群首位度进行了描述,对未来农村地区人口转移潜力以及城市群的产业布局情况进行了分析。结果发现:中国近半的农村家庭已经投入到城镇化进程之中,11.6%的农村家庭已经常住在城市,36.1%的农村家庭有家庭成员常住在城市;未来农村地区劳动力流出意愿不足,异地城镇化路径存在阻滞风险;中、西部城市群内部产业结构不足以支撑农业劳动力就近城镇化。进一步提出思考:逐步推动常住人口城镇化向户籍人口城镇化转变;优先解决中、西部地区城市群产业结构合理化问题。
Based on the outflow survey 2016, inflow survey 2016, as well as inflow survey 2017 implemented by former National Health and Family Planning, and using bi-source data coupling comparison method, the paper describes the relationship of agriculture family and urbanization, shows the flow direction and Local Urban Agglomeration Primate, analyzes the potential of population transfer in rural areas in the future, and points out the industrial distribution of urban agglomeration from the Two-way Perspective of rural and urban. The findings include nearly half of China's rural households have been involved in the process of urbanization, 11.6% of rural households have already lived in cities, 36.1% of rural households have family members who live in cities. Lack of willingness to outflow labor force in rural areas, the risk of blocking the path of urbanization in different places is emerging. The internal industrial structure of urban agglomerations in Central and Western China is not enough to support the in-site urbanization of agricultural labor force. Further reflections are put forward: the policymakers should promote the urbanization of the permanent resident population to the urbanization of the registered population, and priority should be given to solve the problem of rationalization of industrial structure of urban agglomerations in Central and Western regions.
作者
齐嘉楠
刘鸿雁
李伯华
于典
QI Jianan;LIU Hongyan;LI Bohua;YU Dian
出处
《人口与社会》
2019年第4期43-59,共17页
Population and Society
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国人口数据综合集成应用平台建设(1949—2015)”(16ZDA089)
关键词
农业人口
流出行为
流出意愿
城市群
新型城镇化
agricultural population
outflow behavior
outflow willingness
urban agglomeration
new urbanization
