摘要
研究降雨在变化环境下的变化特征,对掌握区域气候变化背景及充分利用降雨等自然资源具有重要意义。论文基于广东省连州市1966~2015年降雨序列,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验法、滑动F、滑动秩和等综合分析序列的突变年,并以突变年为分界点提取变化环境下的降雨序列,采用气候倾向率、滑动平均和Mann-Kendall等分析变化环境下的降雨序列趋势特征,最后利用Morlet小波分析方法对变化环境下降雨序列的周期特征进行分析。结果表明:年降雨量序列于1992年发生突变,年降雨日数序列则于1984发生突变;变化环境下年降雨量总体呈现上升的趋势,每10a上升幅度为54.96mm,且趋势显著,而年降雨日数则相对稳定;受环境变化的影响,年降雨量序列存在6a的主周期,而年降雨日数序列主周期则比较长,第一主周期长达30a。
The study on the variation characteristics of rainfall under the changing environment is of great significance for better understanding the regional climate change and making full use of natural precipitation resources.Precipitation data in Lianzhou city of Guangdong was analyzed in this research.Firstly, various methods such as Mann-kendall, sliding F and sliding rank sum were applied to comprehensively analyze the mutation of the yearly rainfall series and yearly rainfall days series, therefore the precipitation series after the changing environment were separated.Then, linear trend, moving average and Mann-kendall were used to analyze the trend for the separated rainfall series.Finally, the periodic characteristics of rainfall series were analyzed by Morlet wavelet method. Results showed that the yearly rainfall series mutated in 1992 while the yearly rainfall days series mutated in 1984.Overall, the yearly rainfall showed a significant upward trend, and the increase rate was 54.96 mm per ten years, while the yearly rainfall days was relatively stable. Affected by environmental changes, the annual rainfall sequence had the main period of 6 a, while the main period of annual rainfall days series were relatively long, and the first main period was 30 a.
作者
谢军
魏炜
莫崇勋
XIE Jun;WEI Wei;MO Chong-xun(Guangxi Transport Vocational and Technical College, Nanning 530023, China;College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China)
出处
《广西大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第4期1177-1183,共7页
Journal of Guangxi University（Natural Science Edition）
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51569003)
广西自然科学基金资助项目(2017GXNSFAA198361)
2018年度广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(2018KY1031)
