摘要
近年来中国外向型劳动密集制造业正受到国内各类成本提高、国外贸易壁垒增加的双重压力,除了进行国内区位转移之外,亟需通过对外直接投资进行全球资源优化配置,降低贸易顺差并规避贸易壁垒。笔者聚焦于中国外向型劳动密集制造业对外直接投资区位选择问题,利用2006-2016年中国省级面板数据进行实证研究发现,各省份制造业工资成本、人口年龄结构、人口密度等6个指标是影响中国外向型劳动密集制造业国内区位转移的主要因素;进一步分析"一带一路"沿线国家1990-2017年以上对应指标组合的绝对值与变化趋势,发现东南亚和南亚地区是目前中国外向型劳动密集制造业较为合适的对外投资区位,菲律宾、印度、孟加拉国等8个国家是当前最具投资潜力的重点投资目标国;基于此,笔者认为政府与相关机构应积极出台税收、信贷等优惠政策,并与潜在重点投资国签订更为广泛的经贸合作协议,鼓励并帮助中国企业顺利进行外向型劳动密集制造业对外投资。
China’s Export-oriented Labor-Intensive(EOLI) manufacturing industry was experiencing a double pressure of domestic cost rise and foreign trade barriers in recent years.It is urgent to optimize the resources allocation through OFDI,and thus may reduce the trade surplus and avoid trade barriers.The paper focused on the OFDI location choice of China’s EOLI manufacturing industry,and applied an empirical research based on China’s provincial panel data from 2006 to 2016 to find that 6 indicators,including local manufacturing wage costs,labor age structure,population density are the main influencing factors of EOLI manufacturing’s domestic location transfer.The paper analyzed the value and trend of the corresponding index combinations from 1990 to 2017 among "The Belt and Road" countries,and found that Southeast Asia and South Asia are the most suitable location for the OFDI of China’s EOLI manufacturing industries.8 countries,including Philippines,India and Bangladesh,are currently the most potential investment target countries.Governments and relevant institutions should actively introduce preferential policies such as taxation and credit,and sign broader economic and trade cooperation agreements with potential key investment target countries to encourage and help Chinese EOLI manufacturing enterprises to carry out the OFDI smoothly.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第9期107-128,共22页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家社会科学青年基金项目“‘一带一路’战略下中国低端制造业产能输出可行性研究”(项目编号:16CJL043)
