摘要
利用1985—2015年间7个节点年份的全国分县小麦种植面积、总产量和单产数据,运用集中度指数、变化率等指标和重心迁移、单产面积贡献率分解方法,基于农作制分区,对过去30年我国小麦生产的时空变化进行分析。东北、西北干旱和华南农作区小麦种植面积明显减少,而黄淮海平原、长江中下游沿海平原农作区北部迅速增加;黄淮海平原农作区的海河低平原、黄淮平原和汾渭谷地亚区2015年集中度指数分别达到20.64%、25.77%和21.65%。各农作区的小麦平均单产持续提高,黄淮海平原和西北干旱农作区提升幅度最大,每年分别达到103.5kghm^-2和92.9kghm^-2。相较于1985年,2015年黄淮海平原农作区小麦总产量增加4.8×10^7t,长江中下游沿海平原农作区增加8.0×10^6t,东北农作区减少2.6×10^6t。在小麦总产增加区域,黄淮海平原农作区以单产主导型及单产与面积共同作用型为主;长江中下游沿海平原农作区以面积主导型及单产与面积共同作用型为主;小麦总产减少地区主要因为种植面积减少。从总产量贡献率变化趋势看,单产主导型地区减少,面积主导型地区增加,单产与面积共同作用型地区较稳定。中国小麦生产越来越向高产地区黄淮海平原农作区集中,海河低平原、黄淮平原和汾渭谷地亚区为小麦生产集中区域;小麦单产和种植面积增加共同增加了该区域小麦总产量增加,而长江中下游沿海平原农作区和新疆地区的小麦总产增加主要靠种植面积扩大。
Comparing spatio-temporal variation characteristics of China’s wheat production,yield,sown area and yield-area-contribution in different farming zones in the past 30 years could help improving wheat planting layout and adjusting planting structure. Concentration index,rate of change,moving of gravity and resolution of yield-area-contribution were used to analyze spatio-temporal changes of China’s wheat production and yield-area-contribution based on county wheat production statistics including sown area,production and yield from 1985 to 2015. The wheat sown area decreased obviously in Northeast farming region,Northwest farming region and South farming region and increased rapidly in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region and Yangtze Plain farming region. In Huang-Huai-Hai farming region,the concentration indexes of Haihe Plain farming region,Huang-huai Plain farming region and Fenwei Basin farming region reached to 20.64%,25.77%,and 21.65% respectively in 2015. Wheat production increased significantly by more than 48 milliontons in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region,and nearly 8 million tons Yangtze Plain farming region but decreased by more than 2.6 million tons in Northeast farming region. In Huang-Huai-Hai farming region,wheat production was concentrated in Haihe Plain farming region,Huang-huai Plain farming region and Yuxi Hill farming region. The average wheat yield continuously improved during the study period,Huang-Huai-Hai farming region and Northwest farming region had the yield increase up to 103.5 kg hm^-2 and 92.9 kg hm^-2 each year. Wheat yield in Yuxi Hill farming region,Fenwei Basin farming region and Haihe Plain farming region was relatively high in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region. The yield-reduced area was mainly caused by the decreasing of sown area,while the yield-area-contribution rate was different in yield-increased area. Yield-dominant counties were reduced,area-dominant counties were increased and yield-area-dominant counties were relatively steady. In production increased area,yield-dominant and yie
作者
白冰
杨雨豪
王小慧
贾浩
吴尧
史磊刚
尹小刚
陈阜
BAI Bing;YANG Yu-Hao;WANG Xiao-Hui;JIA Hao;WU Yao;SHI Lei-Gang;YIN Xiao-Gang;CHEN Fu(College of Agronomy and Biotechnology,China Agricultural University/Key Laboratory of Farming System,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100193,China;Beijing Research Center for Information Technology in Agriculture,Beijing 100097,China)
出处
《作物学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第10期1554-1564,共11页
Acta Agronomica Sinica
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300200)资助~~
关键词
小麦
时空变化
农作区
集中度指数
贡献率
wheat
spatio-temporal changes
farming region
concentration index
contribution
