摘要
利用1979—2018年NCEP0.5°×0.5°月平均再分析资料,采用TSA法、M—K趋势检验法、R/S分析法分析湖南汛期K指数时空变化特征及未来趋势。结果表明:(1)湖南省K指数总体呈现南高北低状态,但同纬度地区稳定度分布不一,山区较平原地区更加不稳定;(2)湘西北、湘西南和湘东南地区在6-8月间为全省大气最不稳定的区域,4-5月和9-10月这3个地区也同样是所在纬线上的不稳定区域;(3)近40a湘西北、湘西南和湘东南3个地区的大气逐渐趋向不稳定,春季湖南湘西北地区对流活动潜势增加,夏季以及初秋湖南南部地区对流活动潜势增加;(4)未来湘西北、湘西南和湘东南地区大气将继续向不稳定方向发展,主要是在4-6月变得更加不稳定,其他地区随机性较大或缓慢向稳定方向发展。
Using the monthly average reanalysis data of NCEP0.5°×0.5° from 1979 to 2018, TSA method, M -K trend test method and R/S analysis method were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and future trend of atmospheric stability in Hunan flood season. The results are showed as follows:(1) The K index of Hunan province is generally high in the south and low in the north, but the distribution of stability in the same latitude is different, the mountainous area is more unstable than the plain area.(2) Northwestern Hunan,southwestern Hunan and southeastern Hunan are the most unstable region in the province from June to August, the three regions are also high -value areas in the same latitude from April to May and from September to October.(3) The atmosphere in the three regions of northwestern Hunan, southwestern Hunan and southeastern Hunan are gradually unstable in the last 40 years, the convective potential increases in northwestern Hunan in spring, and in southern Hunan in summer and early autumn.(4) The atmosphere will continue to develop towards instability in northwestern Hunan, southwestern Hunan and southeastern Hunan in the future, especially in April, May and June, but the randomness will be larger or develop to the stable direction slowly in other regions.
作者
孟蕾
桑友伟
何娜
MENG Lei;SANG Youwei;HE Na(China Meteorological Administration Training Centre Hunan Branch,Changsha 410125, China;Jiahe Meteorological Bureau,Chenzhou 424500, China)
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2019年第4期52-57,共6页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
湖南省气象局重点课题“湖南省气象部门县级综合业务技术学习手册”(XQKJ18A004)
湖南省气象局面上项目“强对流天气预报预警知识与技能课程模块开发”(XQKJ19B051)共同资助
