摘要
在阐明房价泡沫影响经济高质量增长的理论基础上,基于Fare-promont指数法合理测算我国259个地级市经济增长质量及分解指标,进一步采用面板和系统GMM模型分析房价泡沫对经济高质量增长的影响效应及具体路径。研究结论表明,在全国范围内,房价泡沫总体上抑制了经济高质量增长,其影响路径为对技术效率的抑制作用和对剩余混合效率的促进作用;东部和中部房价泡沫同样抑制了经济高质量增长;在13个经济圈中,5个经济圈(珠三角、长三角、环渤海、长江经济带、东北地区)内的房价泡沫显著抑制了经济高质量增长,且影响路径及效果存在显著差异;政府财政独立性和投资无助于提升经济高质量发展。
On the basis of clarifying the theory that the housing bubble affects the high-quality growth of the economy, this paper reasonably measures the economic growth quality and decomposition indicators of 259 prefecture-level cities in China based on the F?re-promont index method, and further uses the panel and system GMM model to analyze the impact and specific path of the housing bubble on high-quality economic growth. The conclusions of the study show that the housing price bubble generally inhibits high-quality economic growth across the country, and its impact path is the inhibition of technical efficiency and the promotion of residual mixing efficiency. Bubbles in the eastern and central also inhibits the high-quality economic growth. In the 13 economic circles, house price bubbles in 5 economic circles which is the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Zone, Changjiang River economic zone and northeast, have significantly inhibited high-quality economic growth with remarkable differences in the path and effect of the impact. Government financial independence and investment do not help to improve the quality of economic development.
作者
郭文伟
李嘉琪
GUO Wen-wei;LI Jia-qi(School of Finance,Guangdong University of Finance & Economics,Guangzhou 510320,China)
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第8期77-91,共15页
China Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“房价泡沫空间溢出对区域金融风险的影响机制和防范研究”(19BJY244)
