摘要
文章立足于基础养老保险缴费适度水平的理论模型探索和实证检验,提出养老保险缴费率以不超过老年人口比重系数为适度上限标准,以“老年人口比重”和“劳动年龄人口比重”为主要指标,构建基础养老保险适度缴费率新模型,解决现行收支平衡缴费率模型不能确定基础养老保险适度缴费率等问题。通过对新模型的合理性检验发现:(1)2018~2050年城镇职工基础养老保险缴费率适度区间为12.00%~15.74%,长期平均适度缴费率为14.62%;(2)依据缴费适度水平推导得到给付适度替代率模型,确定给付适度水平随劳动年龄人口比重下降而降低,城镇职工基础养老保险适度替代率由2018年的41.64%降低至2050年的26.04%,既能够契合企业缴费可承受能力和转轨过程中代际转移养老责任下降规律,也能够满足老年人口基本保障需求;(3)新模型基础养老保险适度缴费率实现了缴费与给付适度性均衡、养老金水平与劳动年龄人口可支配收入水平均衡、养老金给付与保障基本生活目标均衡。在此基础上,文章提出相关对策建议。
Motivated by theoretical model exploration of the optimal basic pension contribution rate, the paper puts forward to the principle that the upper limit of pension contribution rate is the proportion of old population, and builds a new basic pension moderate contribution rate model using the proportion of old population and that of labor force. The new model solves the problem of determining the optimal basic pension contribution rate, which the original model could not solve. We find that:(1) from2018 to 2050, moderate contribution rate of urban employee’s basic pension plan ranges from 12%to 15.74%, with a long-run average rate at 14.62%.(2) The optimal replacement rate reduces along with the share of working population, and the optimal basic pension replacement rate will decline from 41.64% to 26.04%, which fits well with the transition from a DB plan to a combination of DB and DC plan.(3) The new basic pension contribution rate model makes it feasible to balance the contribution and the payment, the disposable income of the working population and the pension of elderly population, and the pension payment and basic living needs. The paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions.
作者
穆怀中
陈曦
Mu Huaizhong;Chen Xi
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第4期17-29,126,共14页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目“新三支柱‘橄榄型’可持续发展养老制度优化与设计”(项目编号:71731007)的阶段性成果
