摘要
目的分析福建省人感染H7N9禽流感疫情和时空特征,为制定和调整防控策略提供依据。方法采用SAS9.2、ArcGIS10.3、SaTScan9.4等软件对福建省2013-2017年人感染H7N9禽流感病例进行空间流行病学分析。结果截止到2017年12月31日,福建省共报告108例人感染H7N9禽流感确诊病例,死亡28人,病死率25.93%。疫情以散发为主,占96.30%,冬春季病例多,农村病例占比多于城市。县级层面病例主要聚集在沿海,全局自相关(Z=3.74,P<0.001)和高/低聚类分析(Z=5.26,P<0.001)结果提示存在空间聚集性。长乐区、福清市、晋江市和思明区是高-高聚集区和局部热点。2014年12月-2015年3月,存在2个时空聚集区域,最大可能集聚区是以漳浦县为圆心,63.04km为半径(RR=4.72,LLR=11.41,P<0.001)的区域;二级可能聚集区是以福清市为圆心,81.98km为半径(RR=4.07,LLR=7.96,P=0.037)的区域。结论福建省人感染H7N9禽流感疫情存在时间和空间聚集性,防控措施应向高发季节、重点区域倾斜,并加强病原学监测。
Objective The aim is to analyze the spatial epidemiological characteristics for human infection with avian influenza H7N9 in Fujian Province,so as to provide scientific evidence for developing and adjusting related control strategies.Methods The epidemiological data of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza in Fujian Province,from 2013 to 2017 was analyzed by SAS 9.2,ArcGIS 10.3 and SaTScan 9.4 software.Results There were a total of 108 cases and 28 deaths reported in Fujian Province, up to December 31,2017.The case fatality rate was 25.93%.96.30% of cases were sporadic. There were more incidences in winters and springs,more incidences in rural areas.The global spatial autocorrelation and high /low clustering analysis indicated that clusters at the county level were in the shore areas ( Z = 3.74,P < 0.001;Z = 5.26,P < 0.001).The cities of Changle,Fuqing,Jinjiang and Siming were the high-high clustered areas and local hot-points.There were two clusters,from December 2014 to March 2015,the most likely cluster regions was centered around Zhangpu County with a radius of 63.04 km ( RR = 4.72,LLR = 11.41,P < 0.001).The secondary cluster regions was centered around Fuqing City with a radius of 81.98 km ( RR = 4.07,LLR = 7.96,P = 0.037).Conclusions Human infection with avian influenza H7N9 in Fujian Province is spatially and temporally clustered.The measures of prevention and control should be focused on high incidence seasons and key regions,and the surveillance of etiology should be strengthened.
作者
陈光敏
郑奎城
谢剑锋
欧剑鸣
祝寒松
CHEN Guang-min;ZHENG Kui-cheng;XIE Jian-feng;OU Jianming;ZHU Han-song(Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research,Fuzhou 350001,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第8期911-915,937,共6页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
福建省2016年卫生计生青年科研课题(2016-1-18)~~
关键词
人感染H7N9禽流感
时空聚集性
时空扫描
Human infection with avian influenza A( H7N9)
Spatial-temporal cluster
Spatialtemporal scanning
