摘要
文章剖析了汇率行为对我国出口贸易流向的影响,在理论分析基础上构建计量模型并以1999年1月到2015年12月为样本区间,对我国出口双边数据进行实证检验,结果表明我国出口贸易份额与人民币汇率、距离、我国物价水平负相关,与进口国需求能力以及进口国物价水平正相关,我国出口的初始条件和贸易政策对出口贸易流向的作用不显著。据此文章提出要适度增加汇率弹性,加强地区间的贸易合作等建议。
The article analyzes the impact of exchange rate on the direction of foreign trade. A specific econometric model has been mapped out to testify empirically based on theoretical analysis and explore bilateral export trade volumes with a range of January, 1999 to December, 2015. The result shows that some certain factors can exert influence on China’s foreign trade flows, among which exchange rate and our country’s CPI and distance playing negative roles while trading partners’ GDP along with CPI playing positive roles. In addition, the roles of our country’s GDP and trade policies played in terms of trade flows of export are not obvious. Some practical suggestions have been put forward such as ensuring greater flexibility of exchange rate and strengthening proactive cooperation with trade partners in different regions across the board.
作者
王佳宇
Wang Jiayu(Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210097)
出处
《江苏商论》
2019年第8期55-59,共5页
Jiangsu Commercial Forum
关键词
出口贸易流向
人民币汇率
实证分析
Trade flows of export
Exchange rate
Empirical analysis
