摘要
深入分析气候变化对油茶(CamelliaoleiferaAbel.)产量的影响和重建油茶产量序列,可为油茶产量定量化预报和保证粮油安全提供科学依据。基于湖南省耒阳县1959—2016年气象指标数据和1965—1990年油茶产量数据,利用相关分析、逐步回归、线性趋势、Morlet小波分析等方法,建立了耒阳县油茶不同物候期气象条件与油茶产量的关系模型。结果表明,基于单个物候期气象条件构建的产量模型中,以花期产量模型效果最优。以11个物候期的拟合产量作为因子构建的产量模型较单物候期气象条件建立的产量模型更优,此方法适用于重建油茶历史产量序列,重建产量数据与测产数据的对比表现出很好的一致性。重建的油茶产量序列表明,耒阳县油茶产量呈减小趋势。21世纪以来,油茶产量波动幅度增大,且产量呈明显减小趋势,说明气候条件对油茶的不利影响在加剧。油茶产量存在4种时间尺度的周期变化。
Deep analysis of change and reconstruction of Camellia oleifera Abel. production sequence under climate change could provide a scientific basis for trending and quantitative forecasting of production and ensure grain and oil security. The data of meteorological indexes from 1959 to 2016, and the historical yield of Camellia oleifera Abel. from 1965 to 1990 in Leiyang county, Hunan province,were extracted, the method of related analysis, stepwise regression, linear trend, and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to establish the relationship between meteorological conditions and the yield of Camellia oleifera Abel. with different phenophase. The results show that the yield model established in the flowering period is the best yield model based on meteorological conditions for a single phenophase. The yield model established by 11 phenophase fitting yields as factors is better than that established by single phenophase. This method is suitable for the construction of long-term sequence history production. The reconstructed production data and the measured production data shows a good consistency. The reconstructed production data shows that the yield of Camellia oleifera Abel. is decreasing. Since the 21st century, the fluctuation of Camellia oleifera Abel. production has increased, and the adverse effect of climate conditions on the high yield of Camellia oleifera Abel. is intensifying. There are four kinds of time scale period changes in Camellia oleifera Abel. production.
作者
蒋元华
廖玉芳
彭嘉栋
黄超
张剑明
JIANG Yuan-hua;LIAO Yu-fang;PENG Jia-dong;HUANG Chao;ZHANG Jian-ming(Hunan Climate Center,Changsha 410008,China;Hunan Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Changsha 410008,China)
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2019年第15期14-18,共5页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
湖南省科技计划项目(2016NK2175)
湖南省科技重大专项(2018NK1030)
