摘要
文章基于中国省际农业总产值增长率与农业机械总动力增长率年度数据,运用非线性MS模型,探讨将2009年视为模型中蕴含“结构突变点”时间节点的合理性,实时捕捉中国东中西部以及省际农业经济增长与农业机械化发展的内在演化规律,甄别农业经济周期与农业机械化进程的时变协同路径。研究表明:(1)将2009年视为非线性MS模型中蕴含“结构突变点”的时间节点,得到的实证结果能够更加准确地反映农业经济周期与农业机械化进程的阶段性变迁特征。(2)东中西部区域农业机械化发展缓慢,难以与农业经济增长同步,农业机械化尚未能与农业经济充分融合、协调发展,农业现代化目标的实现尚需推动。(3)东部地区农业经济增长与农业机械化发展具有明显的异步性。中部地区农业经济周期与农业机械化进程具有显著的同步性。西部地区农业经济增长与农业机械化发展表现出同步收缩以及同步扩张的阶段性转变特征。此外,2013-2016年,东中西部多数地区均普遍历经农业经济增长与农业机械化发展的同步收缩期。
This paper,by using a nonlinear MS model,first discusses the reasons why the year 2009 is taken as the"structural-break-point"in the model,based on the annual growth rate data of the provincial total value of agricultural output and the power of agricultural machinery,during which it captures the real time internal evolution of the agricultural economic growth and mechanization processes in east-central-west regions and provinces of China,judging the time-varying cooperation path between the agricultural economy cycles( AEC)and the agricultural mechanization processes( AMP). Then it analyzes whether the two are synchronous or asynchronous. The major findings are: Firstly,with 2009 as the time node,the empirical results reflect more accurately the phase change characteristics of AECs and AMPs. Secondly,the agricultural mechanization in the east-central-west regions is developing slowly,and it is difficult to grow as fast as the agricultural economy since the former has not yet fully integrated and coordinately developed with the latter,whose goal realization needs further promotion. Thirdly,both growth and development in the eastern region are obviously asynchronous. The AECs in the central region have a significant synchronization with the AMPs. The western region shows the characteristics of phased transformation as simultaneous contraction and simultaneous expansion.Further,in 2013-2016,most provinces in China have experienced a simultaneous systolic period of agricultural economic growth and agricultural mechanization development. Lastly,in the synergy of the two,the concordance is small in the eastern region,but greater in the other two parts. In addition,after the structural-break-point,the concordance in the eastern region doesn’ t rise but drop.
作者
隋建利
张亿萍
Sui Jianli;Zhang Yiping
出处
《社会科学战线》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第7期54-69,282,共17页
Social Science Front
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDC008)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573104)
教育部重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790014)
