摘要
气候变化对降雨产生的影响会干扰低影响开发设施的运行效果。为了建设气候适应性低影响开发设施从而实现海绵城市可持续性发展,引入气候模式模拟及预测成果来辅助规划低影响开发设施的规模。通过总结概括CMIP5在雨水控制设施应用方面的主要研究成果,提出根据模拟能力筛选CMIP5最优耦合模式,利用多模式集成降尺度法修正模式预估降雨日尺度数据,并结合历史实测站点数据共同作为建设气候适应性低影响开发设施的研究基础数据,对长序列降雨数据截选与分组,统计分析同一年径流总量控制率下的设计降雨量标准差及差值作为划分气候敏感区域的依据,并针对不同敏感区提出建设意见,可为我国城市雨水系统应对未来气候变化提供参考。
The impact of climate change on rainfall will interfere with the operation effect of low-impact development facilities.In order to build low impact development (LID) facilities for climate adaptability and achieve sustainable development of sponge cities,climate model simulation and prediction results were introduced to assist in planning the scale of low-impact development facilities.By summarizing the main research results of CMIP5 in the application of rainwater control facilities,the optimal coupling model of CMIP5 was selected according to the simulation ability.The multi-mode integrated downscaling method was used to correct the predictive daily rainfall scale data,and combined with the data of historical measured sites as the basic data for the research on the construction of low impact development facilities of climate adaptability.As a consequence,the data of long series of rainfall were selected and grouped.The standard deviation and difference of design rainfall under the same volume capture ratio of annual rainfall were statistically analyzed as the basis for the division of climate-sensitive areas.Suggestions on the construction of different sensitive areas were put forward in order to provide strong support for China’s urban rainwater system to cope with future climate change.
作者
胡蓓蓓
张质明
李俊奇
HU Bei-bei;ZHANG Zhi-ming;LI Jun-qi(Beijing Climate Change Response Research and Education Center,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China;Key Laboratory of Urban Stormwater System and Water Environment,Ministry of Education,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《环境工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第7期8-12,56,共6页
Environmental Engineering
基金
北京市自然科学基金(8154044)
北京建筑大学市属高校基本科研业务费专项(X18244)
