摘要
本文以2002—2016年间88家商业银行为样本,实证考察了中国商业银行贷款拨备计提行为的周期效应。研究发现,中国商业银行贷款拨备计提行为存在明显的顺周期性;这种顺周期性在经济上行时期会传导至信贷市场从而放大信贷供给,但在经济下行时期由于受到宏观货币政策调控的影响,贷款拨备行为对信贷供给的影响甚微。进一步研究发现,在不同的经济周期下,银行竞争程度对银行贷款拨备与信贷关系的影响具有异质性。本文的研究为商业银行全面竞争新时代下建立前瞻性拨备制度,完善贷款拨备监管提供了理论支持。
An economic crisis swept the world in 2008. The volatility of financial markets was transmitted to the real economy through credit. The shock to the real economy further expanded the risk to the financial system, leading to a vicious circle of feedback. This effect was further amplified by the procyclicality of the financial system. Because they link the real economy and the financial industry, commercial banks play an important role in this process.Specifically, at present, the accepted international bank loan provisioning policy (the so-called “loss model”)is based on historical orientation rather than future direction. The model has significant backward characteristics and is susceptible to the business cycle. The impact is as follows. During an economic upswing, the provision for loans is delayed, and during an economic downturn, accumulated loan losses are frequently confirmed. The result is a further exacerbation of cyclical effects in credit, making the cyclical fluctuations in the macro economy more intense. We use a sample of 88 Chinese commercial banks from 2002 to 2016 to examine whether loan loss provisioning in Chinese commercial banks is procyclical. The empirical results show that provisioning behavior in Chinese commercial banks is procyclical. In addition, during economic expansion, this procyclicality influences the credit market and results in an increase in the credit supply;however, during economic downturn, the impact of the provisioning behavior on the credit supply is minimal due to macroeconomic regulation and monetary policy.Further research shows that under different economic cycles, the degree of bank competition has heterogeneous effects on the relationship between bank loan provision and credit. This situation is caused by the non-marketization of China's credit supply. During the financial crisis, the government regulated the amount of bank credit through administrative means rather than market mechanisms, thus in turn regulating the macro economy. Undoubtedly, this policy preve
作者
丁友刚
严艳
DING Yougang;YAN Yan(School of Management, Jinan University;Dongguan Financial Holdings Group Co., Ltd.)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第7期142-157,共16页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“内部控制缺陷认定标准:指标设计、影响因素与经济后果”(71572069)
广东省(基础研究及应用研究)重大项目(社会科学类)“产业政策与信贷周期”(2016WZDXM011)的资助
关键词
贷款拨备
顺周期性
银行竞争
Loan Loss Provision
Procyclicality
Bank Competition
