摘要
十八大以来,光伏扶贫和乡村振兴战略成为农村工作的重点。目前,在我国832个贫困县中,有451个县年均等效发电时间超过1 100小时,适合发展光伏精准扶贫。改革开放40年来,农村的能源需求显著增加,能源供给更加多样。国际上对可再生能源城市建设的探索已取得了初步成果,能否将这一构想应用于中国农村?为探索这一问题,本文构建了一个位于山东、人口1 000人、面积100万m2的虚拟光伏新村,借助供给需求模型和情景分析法展示了在乡村这一行政等级上,到2030年和2050年不同情境下能源独立的可行性。为了量化能源独立情况,定义了能源独立系数。研究发现:只有在强可再生能源政策下,即提高能源供给的同时降低能源需求,光伏新村才能实现能源独立,基准情景和温和可再生能源政策情景下,都需要外来能源的补充。中期来看,技术仍是制约光伏发电的最大因素,但是在长期,由于光伏组件转换效率的约束,技术不再是提高能源供给有效途径。
Since the 18 th National Congress, the PV poverty alleviation and rural revitalization strategy has become the focus of rural work. At present, among the 832 poverty-stricken counties in China, 451 counties have an average annual equivalent power generation time of more than 1 100 hours, which is suitable for the development of photovoltaic precise poverty alleviation program. In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, rural energy demand has increased significantly, and energy supply has become more diverse. The international exploration of the construction of renewable energy cities has achieved initial results. Can this concept be applied to China’s rural areas? In order to explore this problem, this paper constructs a virtual photovoltaic powered village located in Shandong province with a population of1,000 and an area of 1 million square meters. It shows the feasibility of energy independence under different scenarios by2030 and 2050 with the supply demand model. The in different scenarios in the year. To quantify energy independence,an energy independence factor is defined. The study found that only under the strong renewable energy policy, that is, to improve energy supply while reducing energy demand, photovoltaic powered villages can achieve energy independence,and both the baseline scenario and the mild renewable energy policy scenario require the supplement of external energy.In the medium term, technology is still the biggest factor limiting PV power generation, but in the long run, due to the constraints of PV module conversion efficiency, technology is no longer an effective way to improve energy supply.
作者
张曼
郭庆方
Zhang Man;Guo Qingfang(China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China)
出处
《未来与发展》
2019年第6期23-34,共12页
Future and Development
关键词
乡村振兴战略
光伏新村
供需模型
情景分析
rural revitalization strategy
photovoltaic new village
supply and demand model
scenario analysis
