摘要
青海省干旱灾害具有发生频繁、影响范围大、持续时间长的特点,严重影响本省农牧业生产,对其发生、分布及出现风险进行研究,成果对降低农业生产风险、水利工程布局建设有很好的参考作用。本文通过修正Penman公式中辐射计算模型,定义青海省干燥度干旱指标,将干旱划分为重旱、中旱、轻旱、无旱四级,对青海省1960—2010年的干旱年际变化趋势及空间分布特征进行分析。构造月干旱发生风险指数,以5月份为例对青海省月干旱发生风险进行了评估。主要结论如下:(1)1961—2010年,青海省年干旱程度以重旱与中旱为主,50年来重旱次数呈现极显著减少趋势;无旱次数呈显著的增加趋势;轻旱与中旱次数无明显变化趋势。冬季干旱以重旱为主;春季重旱减弱,轻旱增加;夏季重旱显著减少,无旱次数显著增加;秋季重旱趋稳。(2)柴达木盆地为重旱高发区;青海省东南部久治、河南、班玛等地为无旱或轻旱主要影响区;祁连山区、东部农业区及青南称多、玉树等地受轻、中旱影响较大。(3)5月份,重旱在三江源的东南部、祁连山区、环青海湖区、东部农业区出现可能性低;中旱高风险区位于柴达木的大柴旦、德令哈、乌兰、都兰及小唐古拉山、治多区域;轻旱高风险区域包括天峻、祁连、环湖区域大部分、东部农业区大部分地区及三江源的杂多、玉树、兴海等地。
The drought disaster of Qinghai province has the characteristics of frequent occurrence, wide impact range and long duration, seriously affecting agricultural and animal husbandry production in native place. The results of occurrence, distribution and risk of drought had a very good reference to reduce the risk of agricultural production and water projects plan. In this paper, the dryness index was defined by a radiation calculation model of the modified Penman formula, and the drought was divided into four levels: severe drought, moderate drought, light drought and no drought. On the basis of this, the interannual variation trend and spatial distribution characteristics of drought of Qinghai province were analyzed from 1960 to 2010. Taking May as an example, the risk of monthly drought risk index was analyzed of Qinghai province in this paper. The main conclusions were as follows: The annual drought degrees of Qinghai province were mainly severe and moderate, and the drought degree showed a weakening trend from 1961 to 2010. In the past 50 years, the numbers of severe drought had decreased significantly. The frequencies of no drought increased significantly. There was no obvious change trend between light drought and moderate drought. Winter drought was characterized by severe drought. In spring, the severe drought decreased and the light drought increased. In summer, the numbers of severe drought decreased and no drought increased significantly. The heavy drought tended to stable in autumn. Severe drought occurred in Qaidam basin area. The areas of Jiuzhi, Henan and Banma in the southeast of Qinghai province were affected the no drought or light drought. Qilian mountain area, the Eastern agricultural region and Chenduo, Yushu in the Southeast of Qinghai province and other areas were affected by light, medium drought. In may, the occur possibility of severe drought was low in the southeast of Three-river Region, Qilian mountain area, Qinghai lake area and the Eastern agricultural area. The middle drought risk ar
作者
李红梅
周秉荣
申红艳
肖宏斌
LI Hongmei;ZHOU Bingrong;SHEN Hongyan;XIAO Hongbing(Qinghai Climate Centre,Xining 810001,China;Qinghai Institute of Meteorology Science,Xining 810001,China;Key Laboratory for Preventing and Mitigating Disaster of Qinghai Province,Xining 810001,China)
出处
《山地学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期230-239,共10页
Mountain Research
基金
青海省科技成果转化项目:青海省重大气象灾害智能格点化防控技术提升与示范(2018-SF-142)~~
关键词
干旱
青海
时空分异
风险
drought
Qinghai province
differences of temporal and spatial
risk
