摘要
利率是经济学中一个重要的研究领域,是金融领域与实际经济活动相连接的纽带,是货币政策传导机制的枢纽,对国民经济具有不可忽视的杠杆作用。利率的变动将会引致经济生活的波动,甚至影响政府相关政策的制定。以利率决定理论为基础,分析影响我国利率的宏观经济因素及其影响程度,通过实证分析方法,建立一个利率与其他宏观经济变量间的定量模型,解释CPI、财政支出、工业增加值、货币供应量、固定资产投资完成额、汇率与净出口对利率水平的影响,并经过模型检验以及脉冲效应函数分析,为我国利率市场化改革提供相应的建议。
Interest rate is an important research field in economics, a link between financial field and real economic activities, a hub of monetary policy transmission mechanism, and a leverage role that can not be ignored for national economy.Changes in interest rates will lead to fluctuations in economic life, and even affect the formulation of relevant government policies.Based on the theory of interest rate determination,this paper analyses the macroeconomic factors affecting the interest rate of our country and the degree of their influence, through empirical analysis, a quantitative model between interest rate and other macroeconomic variables is established,which is used to explain the impact of CPI, fiscal expenditure, industrial added value, money supply, fixed assets investment completion, exchange rate and net exports on interest rates, and through model test and impulse effect function analysis, it provides corresponding suggestions for the reform of interest rate marketization in China.
作者
胡璇
HU Xuan(Scientific Research Department, Changchun Finance College, Changchun 130028, China;Jilin Province Rural Finance Reform Research Center, Changchun 130028, China)
出处
《长春金融高等专科学校学报》
2019年第3期26-35,共10页
Journal of Changchun Finance College
基金
吉林省农村金融改革研究中心项目(JZSJPT2019001)
关键词
利率决定
影响因素
协整
误差修正模型
interest rate determination
influencing factors
co-integration
error correction model
