摘要
投资大、路线长、变更订单多等因素是长距离引水工程超支的主要原因。本文在已有研究的基础上,构建了调水工程全过程成本超限风险评价指标体系,应用集对-层次分析方法建立了成本超限风险评价模型,对各风险评价指标进行了权重计算和排序。最后,通过关联度对成本超支风险进行综合评估,获得综合风险水平。集对-层次分析法能准确评价风险,且可靠性高。通过案例计算和验证,可以为施工企业提供有效的超支决策信息。
Large investment, long route and many orders are the main reasons for the over-expenditure of long-distance water diversion projects. On the basis of the existing research, the evaluation index system of cost-exceeding risk in the whole process of water diversion project is constructed, and the evaluation model of cost-exceeding risk is established by using set pair-analytic hierarchy process. The weight of each risk evaluation index is calculated and ranked. Finally, the comprehensive risk level is obtained through the comprehensive evaluation of the risk of cost overrun through the correlation degree. Set pair-analytic hierarchy process can accurately evaluate the risk and has high reliability. Through case calculation and validation, it can provide effective decision-making information of over-expenditure for construction enterprises.
作者
万小虎
张永哲
李秀华
WAN Xiaohu;ZHANG Yongzhe;LI Xiuhua(Dongying Lijin Water Conservancy Bureau, Dongying 257400, China)
出处
《水利建设与管理》
2019年第5期14-20,共7页
Water Conservancy Construction and Management
关键词
集对-层次分析
引水工程
超支
风险评价
SPA-AHP
water diversion project
over-expenditure
risk assessment
