摘要
为系统评价张掖绿洲生态安全性,基于PSR框架构建了进行绿洲生态安全评价指标体系,测算张掖绿洲生态安全指数,并以此为依据系统判定张掖绿洲当前的生态安全等级,评价张掖绿洲的生态安全状况.同时,考虑到在气候变化、人类活动影响等背景下,张掖绿洲发展受到的自然、社会经济胁迫,设定不同的情景,模拟预测张掖绿洲的生态安全指数变化情况,预测张掖绿洲未来生态安全趋势.从评价和预测的结果来看,张掖绿洲的生态安全现状较不乐观.1990-2016年,张掖绿洲的生态安全值均出现波动下降态势,通过模拟不同情景下的绿洲生态安全值发现:若采取宽松控制或缺乏控制,在面对气候变化或人类活动冲击时,张掖绿洲的生态安全值将下降至0.2,生态环境将进一步脆弱,难以应对未来气候变化、社会发展带来的风险,生态安全将进一步下降,甚至发展到恶化状态.采取节水技术提高水安全,恢复绿洲生态环境,才能实现可持续发展,未来绿洲生态安全状况才能得到持续有效改善,绿洲健康、安全、永续发展才能得到保障.
In order to systematically evaluate the ecological security of Zhangye oasis, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of ecological security of Zhangye oasis based on the PSR framework, calculates the ecological security index of Zhangye oasis, judges its current ecological security level and evaluates the oasis’ ecological security status. At the same time, considering the natural and socio-economic stresses on the development of Zhangye oasis under the background of climate change and human activities, different scenarios are set up to simulate and predict the changes of ecological security index and the future trend of ecological security of Zhangye oasis. According to the results of evaluation and prediction, the current situation of ecological security in Zhangye oasis is not optimistic. From 1990 to 2016, the ecological security values of the oasis fluctuated and declined. By simulating the ecological security values of the oasis under different scenarios, it is found that if loose control or lack of control were adopted, the ecological security values of Zhangye oasis would drop to 0.2 in the face of climate change or human activities, and the ecological environment would be further fragile, and it would be difficult to cope with the risks brought about by future climate change and social development. The ecological security will further decline, and even develop to a deteriorating state. Only by adopting water-saving technology to improve water security and restore the oasis ecological environment, can sustainable development be realized, the oasis ecological security situation can be improved continuously and effectively in the future, and the oasis healthy, safe and sustainable development can be guaranteed.
作者
张惠
ZHANG Hui(School of Tourism,Lanzhou University of Arts and Science,Lanzhou 730000,China)
出处
《兰州文理学院学报（自然科学版）》
2019年第3期57-64,共8页
Journal of Lanzhou University of Arts and Science(Natural Sciences)
关键词
绿洲生态
生态安全
评价与预测
oasis ecology
ecological security
evaluation and forecasting
