摘要
国内电子商务行业近年来发展迅猛,线下消费品牌加速"触网",大量代运营企业伴随着线下企业转型实现了高速发展.以2011-2017年国内电商代运营市场规模数据为依据,针对选取数据波动较大的问题,选取了平均弱化缓冲算子对原始数据进行弱化,利用灰色GM(1,1)模型对未来5年的电商代运营市场规模进行了预测.结果证实,所建立模型精度较高、满足要求,可以作为未来几年来该行业预测的参考.
In recent years, the domestic e-commerce industry has developed rapidly, more and more offline goods brands are being sold online, and a large number of agent-operated enterprises have achieved rapid development along with the transformation of offline enterprises. Based on the data of domestic e-commerce agency operation market scale from 2011 to 2017, in this paper, the average weakening buffer operator to weaken the original data in view of the problem of large fluctuations in the selected data, and uses the gray GM (1,1) model to predict the size of the e-commerce agency operation market in the next five years. The results show that the model has high accuracy and meets the requirements, and can be used as a reference for the industry forecast in the next few years.
作者
杨力
YANG Li(Department of Economics and Trade Management ,Anhui Vocational College of Defense Science and Technology,Lu’an 237011,Anhui,China)
出处
《兰州文理学院学报（自然科学版）》
2019年第3期1-5,共5页
Journal of Lanzhou University of Arts and Science(Natural Sciences)
基金
2016年度安徽高校人文社会科学研究项目(SK2016SD15)
安徽省教育厅"高等职业教育创新发展行动计划(2015-2018年)"项目(XM-1)
安徽国防科技职业学院专业带头人培养基金
关键词
电商代运营
GM(1
1)
弱化算子
市场规模
e-commerce agent operation
GM (1,1)
weakening operator
market scale
