摘要
我国房地产业一直处于非理性繁荣状态,在全国房地产业迅猛发展的同时,住房空置问题也日益凸显,住房空置问题在国内学术界和政届一直争议不断,目前,房地产市场存在一种"不合理"现象,住房空置率高的情况下,房价也居高不下。而且房地产贷款占我国商业银行贷款的绝大部分,一旦房地产泡沫破灭,房价下跌,房子作为银行抵押物的价值也会降低,房地产商若无力偿还银行贷款,将转为不良贷款,导致银行不良贷款率增加,直接产生银行信贷风险,与房地产相关联的金融机构以及其他产业都将被牢牢套住,最终导致金融市场的系统性风险爆发。本文通过房地产统计年鉴和国家统计局收集到广西房地产相关数据,从房价与银行信贷的角度,分析广西全区住房空置与房地产金融风险的传导机制,并提出相应的政策建议,保证房地产市场的安全运行。
China’s real estate industry has been in a state of irrational prosperity. At the same time as the rapid development of the real estate industry in the country, the problem of housing vacancy has become increasingly prominent. The problem of housing vacancy has been controversial in domestic academic circles and political circles. At present, there is a kind of unreasonable phenomenon in real estate market, that is housing prices are also high when housing vacancy rates are high. Moreover, real estate loans account for the vast majority of China’s commercial bank loans. Once the real estate bubble bursts, house prices fall, and the value of the house as a bank collateral will also decrease. If the real estate business is unable to repay the bank loan, it will turn into a non-performing loan, resulting in the increase of bank non-performing loan ratio which directly leads to bank credit risk, and the financial institutions and other industries associated with real estate will be firmly trapped, eventually leading to the outbreak of systemic risks in the financial market. This article collects real estate data from Guangxi through the Real Estate Statistical Yearbook and the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzes the transmission mechanism of housing vacancy and real estate financial risk in Guangxi from the perspective of house price and bank credit, and proposes corresponding policy recommendations to ensure the security of the real estate market.
作者
张煦
ZHANG Xu(Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou 535000,China)
出处
《价值工程》
2019年第14期16-19,共4页
Value Engineering
基金
广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目:广西北部湾经济区住房空置问题与金融风险关系研究
2017KY0746
关键词
住房空置率
房价
银行信贷
房地产金融风险
housing vacancy rate
house price
bank credit
real estate financial risk
