摘要
2018年,我国宏观经济运行总体平稳,稳中有进,但也面临许多新的挑战。2018年,我国总体价格水平处于合理区间变化,基本实现了政府价格水平调控目标。其中,居民消费价格指数的增速稳中有升,工业生产者出厂价格指数和工业生产者购进价格指数的涨幅明显回落。就居民消费价格指数而言,食品价格进入上涨周期以及去年能源价格大幅上涨传导至消费品领域是推动今年居民消费价格指数涨幅上升的主要因素,国际大宗商品价格涨幅回落是限制工业生产者出厂价格指数以及工业生产者购进价格指数涨幅的主要原因。2019年,我国物价水平将延续当前走势,虽然短期内将出现一定程度的下降,但将始终保持在合理区间范围,全面通缩的可能性较小。食品价格进入上涨周期、积极的财政政策以及宏观经济稳中向好的长期趋势将继续成为推动总体价格水平。与此相对应,收入增速缓慢下降的走势将继续限制消费需求和投资需求,货币政策传导机制的有效性短期内将继续限制货币政策的有效性,而积极财政政策在减税降负的要求下也更倾向于结构调整。
In 2018, China’s macroeconomic operation was generally stable and progressive, but it also faced many new challenges. In 2018, China’s general price level was in a reasonable range, and the target of government’s price level control was basically achieved. Among them, the main reason for the rise in the price level is the cyclical rise in food prices and the increase of the cost of intermediate inputs. The main factors that inhibit the accelerated rise in the price level are the downward pressure on aggregate demand and the decline in service prices. It is estimated that China’s general price level in2019 will continue along the trend in 2018.While there will be a large downward pressure in the short-term;it will continue to change within a reasonable range throughout the year..
作者
许光建
许坤
Xu Guangjian;Xu Kun
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2019年第1期14-21,共8页
Price:Theory & Practice
关键词
物价形势
经济运行
高质量发展
大宗商品价格
新挑战
Price Movement
Economic Operation
High-quality Development
Commodity Price
New Challenge
